ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Here is a chart of spy, this pattern from last week is bugging me. I have never seen anything like it, specifically last wednesdays gap up. Market sold off due to weak rate cut, gaps 30 points due to some bs fed move and keeps making lower lows. I guess it is too obvious. :confused:
 

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Quote from kinggyppo:

I apologize for the sarcasm. What is the system? I have no idea what you are talking about as far as any system. Can you post a link or an explanation? Thanks.
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The system was backtested using SPY. The entry for long side is today's low < lowest low of past 9 days. Entry is at the close and position is held for 1 day.

The out of sample results (1/1/05 to 9/21/07) are as follows:

RAR=61%
MaxDD=4%
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

Here is a chart of spy, this pattern from last week is bugging me. I have never seen anything like it, specifically last wednesdays gap up. Market sold off due to weak rate cut, gaps 30 points due to some bs fed move and keeps making lower lows. I guess it is too obvious. :confused:
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ah that pattern

I have seen it many times


Its commonly known as the "therewasnooxygenuptheresoimgonnatrydownhere" pattern.
 
Quote from razf1:

going long at close based on new Jan08 ActiveTrader SPY oversold system.
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I'm getting a long signal as well from Dec spy options. My only concern is the H and S could overide it.
 
Quote from apex82:

Update on euro...

This last spring took it right up to the main resistance. This is where I get agressive looking for a reversal bar because this is where the best R:R is. MINIMUM target is 500-800 pips from this zone. 1.4460 area is what I am looking for to take first profits. There is still support below the market so most likely a pull back and then a retest of this high over the next day or 2. If weakness comes in on the retest that is where I go all in with a tight stop. Once again... this is a runaway market so am waiting for confirmation that this zone is going to hold. Perfect setup would be a doji or 2 and then a break below the prior days low.
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I am now 90% out of my euro short position. I was short atm calls and futures as I said I would in this journal the day the high was made. My target has now been hit and am closing out the position with about 400-550 pips of profit per contract due to different exits. I am now waiting for a daily reversal bar to knock me out fully where I will be getting bullish.

Here is the before...
http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1688853

After...
 

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.....10 min buy signal was given at the close.....
.... 66-76 was the range before drop
.... if it can regain that range...... then next upside target is 80
.... thinking of Wyckoff here...... anybody good with volume analysis ? ... not me....
...... downside is a different matter.... no comment there....
 
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