ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Finished for today. Very decent.

Still long AAPL 195DEC calls which I bought right after opening.

Usually I tend to lean towards the "short side" as I am bearish for the economy.

BUT this setup is just pretty strong.(I am refering mainly to the NQ/NDX)

1. From 7th november we saw a over 200pts decline, consolidating around 200.

The bearflag was annihilated during the massive runup on 11/28.(Note the retrace to 2050)

A such failure means often that we´re going the whole way back.


2. Look at the chart of AAPL(about 17% of the NDX). Says it all.

Closing around 190(daily high, near ATH)

3. Seasonal aspects
 
I was wrong in the morning on the short and took my stopout as planned. I am about making money, not being right. Definately, lost money today..but Ill make it back tomorrow.
 
Quote from [Proximo]:

No need to be bulls or bears. All you need is to follow price.

People who like to have strong convictions regarding direction will eventually need to invest in a butt plug.
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Yep, does anyone really know the market will be up tomorrow.
Apex is a good example of someone who is able to change his opinion on the market and jump in with both feet, a rare skill.
I wish I were better at it and constantly have to fight this tendency; look how bad off you were if you kept believing that the market would sell off. That's why you have to have rules and you must honor your stops or else. Sure you can martingale and get lucky but eventually you will pay the piper.
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

Yep, does anyone really know the market will be up tomorrow.
Apex is a good example of someone who is able to change his opinion on the market and jump in with both feet, a rare skill.
I wish I were better at it and constantly have to fight this tendency; look how bad off you were if you kept believing that the market would sell off. That's why you have to have rules and you must honor your stops or else. Sure you can martingale and get lucky but eventually you will pay the piper.
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Thanks Apex you just proved what I said. Honor those stops.
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

Yep, does anyone really know the market will be up tomorrow.
Apex is a good example of someone who is able to change his opinion on the market and jump in with both feet, a rare skill.
I wish I were better at it and constantly have to fight this tendency; look how bad off you were if you kept believing that the market would sell off. That's why you have to have rules and you must honor your stops or else. Sure you can martingale and get lucky but eventually you will pay the piper.
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thats why I love MA's so much, they are a form of risk management. They keep me on the right side of the market...
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

thats why I love MA's so much, they are a form of risk management. They keep me on the right side of the market...
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Would you please mind if I ask you what MA's you use on your charts.?
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

I'm sure a lot of you expert traders caught some of that upside.

So did this guy:



Only he made his call last night, when everyone else was looking for at least a little retracement.

pwnage, feels good. :)

JJ
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The call was .75 from being the exact top before ES fell to 1483.

I guess if you trade with 12 point stops it was great.
 
Quote from atticus:

Prob of touching 1490 ES anytime before the close on Fed Wednesday is ~22% based upon the fairval of the Dec ES 1490 touch exotic [22/100 mid].
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But what did the ever so unimportant SPY options say ?
 
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