ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
Believe it or not I have thought alot about this. The problem calls for many assumptions, like what is the average daily standard deviation, sticking with your first call I would say it makes it questionable whether markets are random. I don't think they are
as it is only finite math here. Even a monster move is only 5-10 standard deviations not a big deal in general math. I am actually more impressed with your humility but that's just me. Good trading.
Usually you need a macro backdrop...for a sustained move.
the macro backdrop is not there, this rally would have been confirmed much later in the FED easing cycle.
Just as prices rallied in the face of rate hikes, before turning definitively, prices will trend down as the FED tries to ease us out.
Only 2 cuts are in. If this move occurred next year, it would have more probable continuance pattern.
Even with this tidbit, I would not go against your risk management indicators. Such as today.
the macro backdrop is not there, this rally would have been confirmed much later in the FED easing cycle.
Just as prices rallied in the face of rate hikes, before turning definitively, prices will trend down as the FED tries to ease us out.
Only 2 cuts are in. If this move occurred next year, it would have more probable continuance pattern.
Even with this tidbit, I would not go against your risk management indicators. Such as today.
it took a lot of collusive money pooled together to do it...the winners are orderflow venues that can frontrun the orders. (ie investment banks).
the advantage of bum rushing the market is its free money as everyones stops are hit with minimal retrace.
you want to put as much distance as possible from the initial attempt so that distribution at higher prices occurs with least amount of slippage as possible.
the advantage of bum rushing the market is its free money as everyones stops are hit with minimal retrace.
you want to put as much distance as possible from the initial attempt so that distribution at higher prices occurs with least amount of slippage as possible.
- Status