ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

Status
Not open for further replies.
And now the 60-min chart... MUCH more bullish.

MACD and RSI divergence

And I'd love for Apex to chime in on this one, but would this be considered a 5-wave downmove with a smaller time-frame climactic 5-wave move at the very bottom (The double climactic wedge you've shown a few times?)
 

Attachments

Quote from tommymoose:

And now the 60-min chart... MUCH more bullish.

MACD and RSI divergence

And I'd love for Apex to chime in on this one, but would this be considered a 5-wave downmove with a smaller time-frame climactic 5-wave move at the very bottom (The double climactic wedge you've shown a few times?)

Looks beautiful.. dont forget the bullish hammer at the low as well as the double bottom that was put in place. This pattern overlapping the higher level 78.6 retracement leads to a high probability of continued upside. At a minimum up to 1475-1480. You can see the trendline lined up as well... a break of that will get more traders involved. Nice anaylsis moose.
 

Attachments

Quote from apex82:

monthly chart potentialy setting up for a climatic wedge after hitting key support on thursday. One last run for this bull market into the new year? This is very prevalent in major tops and bottoms. I have shown examples of this time and time again on intraday charts throughout this journal.. Just like to keep it simple. People can say retracements work all the time.. yada yada. There is only one that I really watch at all times and that is the 78.6. 50% will usually always give at least a pause, but I have not found it useful enough to give me an edge.

apex or tommymoose,

can you tell me what is meant by 78.6? thanks.
 
Quote from princessa:

preliminarily, i am assuming you all mean a 78.6% retracement from high to swing low. is this correct?

Apex is the godfather of this TA, but that was always my understanding. sqrt(.618) = .786 ... whether the level is a self-fulfilling prophecy or what I have no clue.

...and thanks for the compliment apex, im grinning :D
 
Quote from tommymoose:

Apex is the godfather of this TA, but that was always my understanding. sqrt(.618) = .786 ... whether the level is a self-fulfilling prophecy or what I have no clue.

...and thanks for the compliment apex, im grinning :D

ya take fib tool and measure from low to high swing and vice versa for a short. If you have confluence in these areas can set up for some really nice R:R trades. I have a lot of reasons why I think it works so well.. but I have no proof. I believe its where big funds and insti's think the market is cheap in an uptrend or expensive in a downtrend. Another reason... its just plain pscyhology.. people who are long from the bottom get scared when the market is approaching their entry after moving very far in the their original direction and close out because they dont want a winner turn into a loser.. smart trader takes the other side and the novice watch it reverse only to move to new highs after closing them out.....
 
hmmm... I have always looked at 76.4% in that area 1 - (.618 * .382), or 1 - 23.6%.

Not going to be a big difference between 78.6% and 76.4% :)
 
Quote from mbusch:

An "ultrashort" or "double short" ETF is one that tracks -200% (that's a minus sign) of the underlying index, so it moves in the opposite direction with as the underlying index with twice the volatility.

For example, SDS tracks -200% of the $SPX, so if the $SPX goes down by 3% then SDS goes up by 6%. (And vice-versa, of course.)

The most widely-traded double-short ETFs (which trade at least in the millions of shares per day) include:

SDS -- double-short S&P 500

QID -- double-short NASDAQ composite

TWM -- double-short Russell 2000

These are marvelous vehicles for playing the short side, with 2x leverage, minimal transaction costs and acceptable management fees (<1%/year). Not nearly as leveraged as options, but far less transaction costs and no time premium.

There are many more double-short ETFs, but most of them trade too thinly for my taste (at least so far). For example, I'd love to be able to buy SSG (double-short semiconductor index), but it only trades about 25,000 shares a day so it's pretty much out of the question if you're buying or selling thousands of shares.

BTW, there are also double-long ETFs. For example, SSO tracks 200% of the $SPX (with no minus sign). SSO and SDS move inversely with each other; if you stack the two charts, they are virtual mirror images.
thanks....great insight!!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top