ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[mbusch]

Quote from smilingsynic:

The H and S to which I am referring was established over just one month--August. The low of the right shoulder was 1432.36 and was made on August 28; the left shoulder was made a few days into the month, on August 3, which closed at 1433.06; and the head ended at around 1370.

Ah, sorry, now I see the IHS to which you refer. However, that IHS would project a target in the 1570s, and in my view that target was reached on October 11th. I can't see how that August IHS would still be operative, other than to establish a resistance level at 1433.

I do see that in the context of the low of Nov 12 (1438.5), today's close (1433) could possibly be the left ear (so to speak) of another IHS. Whether it is or not is unkowable at this point, but certainly if the Spooz rallies this week to the 1460s and then retraces to below 1440 and buyers step up there, that would be strongly short-term bullish. The hourly Spooz cash chart is showing enough bullish divergence (both MACD histogram and RSI) to make this a very plausible scenario.

I would view a rally from such an IHS (up to the 1550s) as a retest of the M-top and would expect a resumption of the longer-term downtrend after that.

Such discussions are intellectually stimulating, but of course nothing more than hypotheticals. We have to trade what we see, not what we think.

 

[mbusch]

Per previous...

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1685262 width=800>

 

[volente_00]

shorted 1441.75

3 point stop


target is 1418 cash

 

[Sponger]

Quote from apex82:

I am looking at shorting crude again as well as looking for one more high in the euro to start dumping my euro currency and switching back to US dollar. Its having a hard time getting to this next high.. but ill be patient. British pound also looks like new highs starting today as well.

Hey Apex, what is your rationale for the Euro to turn down and US dollar to head back up.....interested in your macro analysis here.

 

[volente_00]

So should one just ignore the h and s on the daily that lead to todays break down ?


Or is this ihs valid from today ?


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=1d

47-50 upside, going to be hard to break


current symetrical triangle could go either way


http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/continuationpattern.asp



I still think we see 1418 cash sometime this week.

 

[volente_00]

800 cars moved it up 1.5 but it only took 150 to move it back down 1.5.

Makes you wonder

 

[Anekdoten]

Quote from volente_00:

800 cars moved it up 1.5 but it only took 150 to move it back down 1.5.

Makes you wonder

I very rarely fade an AH move because it can be extremely trendy when it's moving at least not until the DAX opens.

Anek

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from volente_00:

So should one just ignore the h and s on the daily that lead to todays break down ?


Or is this ihs valid from today ?


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=1d

47-50 upside, going to be hard to break


current symetrical triangle could go either way


http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/continuationpattern.asp



I still think we see 1418 cash sometime this week.

Perhaps we do, but I was speaking of beyond this week (up to the New Year).

December is traditionally a strong month. I just cannot see the powers that be letting this market tank, taking their bonuses with it. I'm betting, rather, that we see a year-end mark-up, and I have been buying easily-goosed momo stocks that are digging into support.

 

[apex82]

Quote from Sponger:

Hey Apex, what is your rationale for the Euro to turn down and US dollar to head back up.....interested in your macro analysis here.

Well I gave up fundamentals long time ago... never could make any money using them as info. In runaway markets, like the euro right now... at some point they become to over crowded and you end up getting everyone trying to exit the door at the same time which creates panic. However, the fx markets trend a lot more so you have to be very careful trading tops in those markets.

If there is very clear PA you can get a probability of this panic psychology playing out and it leads to a very large R:R trade.

Basically the premise is 2 overlapping 5 wave moves on high time frames as well as a couple other projections. When you get this kind of confluence its best to get out and wait to see if its going to blow through the level or if not... reverse and ride it down because these moves are explosive.

Here is a visual of the Resistance zones. The first one has more confluence but in runaway markets they tend to go to the furthest point.

 

[Spectre2007]

nice move from 1438-1450..

would expect a retest of 1438 before attempting to spring back up..to 50..in RTH...in todays session.

low 1450's would put in a 20 point flip..

edit:

if 38 breaks down, and we test lower into the 1420's....then the 20 point flip would put us at 1440..

expecting a bad post thanksgiving holiday session next week.. thats when volume levels will pick up...and possibly test the long term trendy at 1380-1400 zone..