ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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I lived in USVI. It's like Detroit with palms. No wonder you spend your days inside posting.


Quote from Spectre2007:

notice if you keep an eye on the MA's as a form of risk management and bias, its hard to go wrong.

again like any professional you need to know when to use certain tools. :)
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This has been a hard market to trade, I think alot of traders got trapped long on that last downleg (the last 20 points of the decline). Should be interesing.:)
 
... nice!... to those who called the power of opex magnets and springs.....
... i was trying to find info on Wyckoff spring.....
... here is a chart i found.... along with another chart of what happened on ES
... looks pretty similar....
.... won't forget this one..... for sure
... first textbook chart....
... 2nd the ES chart

... note that the stochastic gave away that something was about to happen... pre-market yesterday
 

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Quote from mbusch:

Here's a link to one of the <a href=http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc071112.htm>best financial articles I've read in a long time</a>, written by economist and fund manager John P. Hussman, Ph.D., who runs <a href=http://www.hussmanfunds.com/>the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund (HSGFX) and the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund (HSTRX)</a>, both of which I own in my IRA (and did NOT liquidate at today's close, like I did most of my other holdings).

Hussman makes a persuasive case for an imminent recession and a multi-year bear market. This article was written yesterday, prior to today's bounce, but actually forecasts the bounce and urges readers not to be deceived by it. Good reading.
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Hi mbusch. You're a smart guy so you probably know about the phenomena of confirmation bias - seeking out information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. I know you're hot on a secular bear.

The main take away I got from that article was this:

Unfortunately, the economic consensus has never accurately anticipated a recession.

Second one is this:

One way to understand this change in outlook is to examine our 4-indicator “rule of thumb” – a simple composite of readily obtainable indicators that have been observed in every U.S. recession

Firstly, it should be said that those two statements are implicitly contradictory.

Ok my points: if economists are terrible at predicting, I would carefully consider why at this particular junction I think I am good at it. As you know stuff works until it doesn't. When I read that article I see old school economic analysis: ie. the US is EVERYTHING. But what if we're in a paradigm shift? I've heard it said that China is in the beginning stages of a 50 year bull, not unlike post-WWII America. In which case articles like that are just another case study of why predicting the future is, like hard and stuff.

The way you are currently trading (out of your skull), I really don't think a long-term bias is especially useful.

YMMV
 
Hulk, my trading is not affected by whether or not the U.S. economy is facing an imminent recession. I am strictly a technical trader, and do not let fundamentals enter my trading decisions. My conviction (discussed here for the past six months or so) that we're either about to enter or have already entered a multi-year secular bear market is based purely on what I see in the long timeframe SPX and ES charts (weekly and especially monthly charts).

From the standpoint of making trading decisions, I could care less whether the U.S. is facing an imminent recession or just a soft-landing slowdown. I only care that the charts are telling me that the equity indices are due for a very large drop in the coming months and years. As Hussman points out, bear markets don't necessarily imply recessions. From a trading standpoint, it matters not whether we have a recession or not, so long as the market goes down.

As a citizen and taxpayer, of course, I do care whether my nation is about to face difficult economic times. From that standpoint, I find the Hussman article quite interesting. However, the article doesn't influence my trading one whit. I was a bear before I read it, and a bear after I read it.

Being a bear doesn't preclude me from going long, as I demonstrated when I did exactly that at Monday's close. It was obvious that the market was extremely oversold and overdue for a significant bounce. When that bounce didn't happen Monday, there was no doubt in my mind it would happen Tuesday.

But my bearish bias does mean that my longs will be short-term and taken somewhat cautiously. (I got out after 18 points and missed out on more than half the upmove.) Conversely, my shorts will be taken with somewhat less caution and held for longer periods because my bearish bias tells me that any timing errors I make in choosing when to enter short (and heat I take as a result) will be mitigated by the fullness of time as the market grinds inexorably lower.

Unsure what you meant by your "out of your skull" parenthetical, so I'll just let that one pass. I'm a lover, not a fighter. :)

Good trading, sir.
 
... nice detailed article on Wyckoff spring...
... too big even zipped so i have to post the link to it...
SPAMwww.hankpruden.com/MTWyckoffSchematics.pdfSPAM
... maybe someone else can post it zipped smaller than i can...
.... edit..... back up to shoulder level now.... will be interesting to see what happens after opex week.....
 
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