ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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bear market characteristics all the way.......quick rips met by sellers offering it down.
complete reversal of a bull market characteristics.

just a side note....the last 2 sessions in the last 30 min of trading.....we sold off a total of 40 handles in a 1 hour span.

fri...3:30......78.50 down to 54.50
mon...3:30.....54.50.....to 38.50

picked up exactly at the friday close...54.50 at 3:30 today to resume another 20 handle dump.

3:30 is a time frame that should be monitored for a big move this week.
maintaining bearish bias in the short,mid & long term......beginings of a Big Bear & a repeat of the miserable `70`s stagflation period in time with a beat up USD.
i prefer trading a bear over a bull anytime as i tend to see the moves formulate a bit better.

SPX daily TL sitting at 1402............Looooonng way down from here............the bigger the lift...the bigger the gift.
 
Quote from mbusch:

If this thread is a valid sentiment indicator, the bull has life in it yet. :)
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busch....how far down do you prepare to build this position & what PO...price objective are you looking for on this trade?

although we are a bit oversold in the short term.....good luck fading me. :)
 
if you look at any other chart besides the daily, it looks tempting to step in. But if you look at the daily, you will see why you shouldn't. There is immense risk below 1440, all positions above 1440 will be underwater, and 1440 become significant resistance.

family and close friends are 90% cash and liquid at the moment.
 

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Quote from Spooz Top:

busch....how far down do you prepare to builalthough we are a bit oversold in the short term.....good luck fading me. :)
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Thanks, I'll need it! :)

It's a small position and I'm prepared to eat humble pie.
 
Quote from BoyBrutus:

If you look at some of the big cap nasdaq stocks that have lead this market down - AAPL, RIMM, YHOO, GOOG they all look like they are hitting good support zones, which makes me think we are going to get a good dead cat bounce.

Thoughts?
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Yes, and there are many others. I have buy orders in place for AAPL and CMG. I really don't see a support level for YHOO, now that it sliced through 26.4 as if it didn't exist. In about 20 points, GOOG will have retraced 1/2 of the move from 480 to a little over 740. Worth keeping an eye on.

These are POSITION trades in an IRA. I am prepared to take some heat, but if you can't take the heat...
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

if you look at any other chart besides the daily, it looks tempting to step in. But if you look at the daily, you will see why you shouldn't. There is immense risk below 1440, all positions above 1440 will be underwater, and 1440 become significant resistance.

family and close friends are 90% cash and liquid at the moment.
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The best countertrend position trading system I have ever written for the S&P is not flashing a buy signal, but there will be limit orders placed at the appropriate levels. A related system IS flashing buy signals for the NQ--in at 1985 ("Bruce Springsteen, Madonna, way before Nirvana there was...").

Is a buy here "risky"? Of course--these aren't CDs we're talking about here. There is "immense risk" at any time only for those who are overexposed and overleveraged. For the rest, it is simply a matter of risk/reward, each position the same as the next. :-)
 
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