ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[mbusch]

60-minute chart looks decidedly bullish if you look at only RTH, but the bullish divergence is spoiled if you consider the AH decline.

4-hour chart is ambiguous. Daily and weekly look bearish, and monthly looks extremely bearish. Consequently, while a short-term pop is possible early in the week to relieve the current extreme oversold condition, I expect the week to be a downer. (Also the month, quarter, and year.)

Interestingly, the AH price action on a 15-miute chart suggests a measured move to 1430 (which coincides with an obvious resistance level). One possible scenario is a decline at (or even before) Monday's open to 1430-ish, followed by a 45- or 50-point rally that would retrace 50% of the downmove from 1526 -- or possibly even a bigger rally that retraces 50% of the downmove from 1558.

Of course, the tale will be told when we find out whether B1S2 covers his shorts at 1430-ish for a 75-handle profit, or whether he takes the heat and holds onto it until sometime in 2009 when the SPX is below 1,000...

 

[volente_00]

Current option interest points to 1440 - 1480+ some time this week. A spring can only compress so far before it pops you in face.

 

[apex82]

Yes I am still bearish on the market however there is a pretty strong bullish pattern developing overnight. The lower low in the globex has completed a possible wedge and you combine that with shoulder on the left and you can see the potential bullish structure forming. If they can rally it back above the 1465-1470 overnight look for the market to form a base at the prior left shoulder to start a pretty strong leg to the upside. If market does not rally back above then of course the odds way to the downside. Just something I am looking at for tomorrow.

 

[JSSPMK]

Within 10 points of Sep support, divergence still valid.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1675823>

 

[elovemer]

...spx open interest....
... springs .... or magnets

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from JSSPMK:

There is a better one on 2 minute chart.

Agreed. --I did mention 5 minute and lower in my post.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

While there may be intraday bullish patterns, I remain short as longer term charts are bearish. I will be treating any intraday bullishness for now as "bounce only". I am at full position. Nothing to do here but watch.

 

[mbusch]

Diamond reversal in pre-market, anyone?

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1675940>

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from mbusch:

B1S2, could you discuss that chart a bit?

I was watching the 5-minute chart in real-time as things unfolded Friday. I saw the MACD divergence, but it wasn't confirmed with a definitive RSI divergence; you'll note that at the final two highs, the RSI was just about the same. Since it's not uncommon for the market to make three or more higher highs with MACD divergence before turning, I generally treat MACD divergence as leading indicator, but one that needs to be confirmed with RSI divergence ("grail") before concluding that a top or bottom is likely in. In this case, I didn't see the RSI grail (i.e., higher high in the price but a lower high in the RSI). I remember myself thinking "one more high and it's time to enter short" but of course that one more high never happened.

Could you comment on how you read these indicators and the price action to conclude that the top was in?

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

While there may be intraday bullish patterns, I remain short as longer term charts are bearish. I will be treating any intraday bullishness for now as "bounce only". I am at full position. Nothing to do here but watch.

Not buying this rally, currencies are wild with the yen down big again. Make sure you adjust your position size for the greater volatility. Good trading.