out of longs 28 handle.
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Closing the last unit out at 1527. Still expecting some upside but this was a day trade so have to stick to my rules.
One more day closer to the FOMC - started to build a few swing positions in a few stocks. Expecting the FED to cut so want to be long coming into FOMC and long stocks as next few months we break to new highs. I can't predict anything with any certainty just trying to play the odds in my favor so will pursue all longs from very low risk point of view. Im not comfortable with large stops and would rather get back in at lower prices if need be.
Just a question to traders like Spec - i see sometimes you enter a trade and it runs against you a few points before turning in your favor. Do you add on at lower prices if your moving averages or your system does not give the opposite signal?
Also, any experienced traders - i see that when you enter a position it is often at the value region or where price is commonly accepted on the day timeframe. Is there a reason for this? Do you ever consider buying at larger deviations from the value region? E.g. today i noticed Spec let the trade move against him before going to his predicted level - did you consider buying more at 1507 region? Thanks for any help - im very curious how some of the more experienced traders trade.
I just spoke to one of the larger private equity traders, he told me he bailed at todays lows. He bought significantly on the way up from 1440. He still banked sizeable gains.
This just illustrates what this action is doing to people, its throwing people off out of their positions.
The question becomes when are people going to get back into the market, when they are thrown off like this.
The only answer is that MM's will force them to pay a premium to get back in. Unless a pseudo crash can be engineered to let people back in.
This just illustrates what this action is doing to people, its throwing people off out of their positions.
The question becomes when are people going to get back into the market, when they are thrown off like this.
The only answer is that MM's will force them to pay a premium to get back in. Unless a pseudo crash can be engineered to let people back in.
I generally adhere to position sizes, based on how much was entered on the initial trade. If I was going to average in, I would have entered in less on the first discount, and proceeded to average at certain intervals.
Its hard to say where the market will turn, but 10 points from the highs was enough of a discount for me.
edit: I expect to see 1522 from now till tommorrows open.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Yen will explode against the dollar within the next 60 minutes.
just having a little fun here. I really have no idea.
Hypothetically I would take the other side, I see USD sticking it up JPY's booboo
Weekly starting to show a bullish pattern in histogram though yet early stages.
Ummm, and how is banking "sizeable gains" and adding another 4.5%+ risk-free return on cash for a maximum of 8 weeks "throwing people off out of their positions"? Sounds like you've molded the conversation to suit your point of view.
I tend to do this a lot, a weakness on my part.
1522 ...should try to close at 1538 to 40 today.
2 for 2 for reaching your targets within ~1 point during globex hours... bravo
I'm dissapointed that the weekly target of 1570 wasn't hit, kinda gives indications for underlying sentiment.
The market makers leading up to the FOMC meeting have painted the picture of negativity but with no price realization.
So it seems positions are weighted on the short side, atleast retail anyways.
I anticipate we continue to grind higher, till sentiment turns overtly bullish again. Then from bullish heights, the decision will be made to progress higher or bring it down below 1494, to generate massive amounts of liquidity that the MM's can use to cover.
But given the backdrop of macro economic events, I see it pushing higher and higher, till Oil hits the 100 dollar mark. Then this key psychological level, will be used to possibly bring the market down.
I anticipate tensions with Iran to increase, in the final months of this Presidency. The nuclear infrastructure will be only allowed in select hands of the globe. A air raid or bombing event is projected to occur as the diplomatic timeline tics away.
Turkey issues will hit sooner, and may be the instigating event for oil to spike to 100.
So a slow crawl up to test old highs in equities with the backdrop of rising oil prices.
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