ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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My post is not meant to disparage/insult/slam anyone. It is simply an observation.

During the 27 Feb 2007 decline as well as this 19 Oct 2007 decline (and I'm sure there are others but these two stick out like a sore thumb) the level of buy the dip/go long only/buy of the century style posts on this thread were off the charts.

The above is worth further study, if only to disprove.
 
Quote from Spooz Top:

not to mention throwing R/R right out the window.

I agree with what your saying, but US equities are the most attractive they've been in a long while. If you take a Buffet macro investing view, there is inherent value and greater degree of transparency in US markets then overseas markets. The wealth creation going on globally will find the most secure and transparent system to store itself in.

Will wealth secure itself in Russian markets?, Asian markets?, European markets?, The debasement in USD can be hedged in many ways, but US equities are at very attractive levels at the current moment. What I'm doing is more investing/swing trading. And yes I'm not arguing the short term sentiment. But if short term sentiment can oscillate to that degree day to day, then there is something inherently wrong, and there is a battle going on between opposing forces. And this usually occurs at significant multiyear resistance levels before it breaks through in a definitive way.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:
During the 27 Feb 2007 decline as well as this 19 Oct 2007 decline (and I'm sure there are others but these two stick out like a sore thumb) the level of buy the dip/go long only/buy of the century style posts on this thread were off the charts.

... human nature never changes.... a tragedy of errors.... and yet again we are reminded to never underestimate the supreme power of the human ego :p
 
.....optioncoach....
... it is interesting because if you compare where that wedge WOULD HAVE finished had it been allowed to progress (no Fed) ....
.... compared to the wedge that formed from 1507spx .. post-FOMC ....
... it looks like the post-fomc wedge broke around the same place the original wedge would have

... but while the target of the original wedge would have been the 1370 low ... the target of the smaller wedge was only 1507spx
.....but we fell right thru 1507 to hit 2nd diamond's target and still no divergence that i can see yet

....and there is something else...
if you take the post-fomc wedge and drop it..... it fits
... it is almost as if .... nothing changed except that the original wedge was made to break sooner because of the fomc jump
....implication ? ... none that i know of
.... in other words.. i am not trying to imply that the original target of spx 1370 still applies

.... if we dont get a divergence on monday and continue to drop... it will make me wonder if the original target of 1370 still applies or not....



Quote from optioncoach:
The wedge got turned up sharply on the FED rate cut day which kind of destroyed the pretiness of the pattern. From that day going forward you can say it is sharply pointing higher but for me it is not the same. The move was a breakout and the short-term trend looks still upwards from Fed day unless we get a significant turnover and so far all we have had is nice green bars and short little red bars.
 

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Quote from johnpinochet:

My post is not meant to disparage/insult/slam anyone. It is simply an observation.

During the 27 Feb 2007 decline as well as this 19 Oct 2007 decline (and I'm sure there are others but these two stick out like a sore thumb) the level of buy the dip/go long only/buy of the century style posts on this thread were off the charts.

The above is worth further study, if only to disprove.

I looked at charts and the way I interpreted p/a was to buy anticipating a breakout. On the other hand as I am not that keen on breakout trades intraday and this trade being a swing one I decided to buy some puts to offset losses if I was to be on the wrong side of market shifters. In the end of the day you have to trade a pattern that you trust with your money ie 'trade what you see'. Anyway, a loss is a loss, I did the right thing to hedge this time as stop was enormous this time compared to the ones I would use intraday.

Again, well done all that called & traded a decline! Although I did see a potential of it developing on 4 hour MACD, I decided to go with a bullish pattern as last year same 4 hour MACD called for a decline and markets brokeout to new high levels that year.

That was some anniversary of '87 crash, Jeez & I laughed at that idea a day before LOL (perhaps not so much on the Loud said).
 
Pekelo, these are his results from Eclectic, let's discuss :)

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Closed out ES longs from the ES journal. Loss of 18.5 pts(rounded up) per contract.

Closed Long Dec NQ at 2171.50 for a total gain of 144.75 points.

Update on Banked Journal Trades:

ES +41.5 points ---4 trades 3 winners
NQ +144.75 points---1 trade 1 winner
Sugar +37 ticks---1 trade 1 winner
Aussie Dollar Futures +184 pips 2 trades/ 2 winners
British Pound Futures +236 pips 1 trade 1 winner
Euro FX Futures +231 pips 3 trades 2 winners
Heating Oil + 460 ticks 2 trades/1 winner
Swiss Franc +58 pips 2 trades/1 winner
Canadian Dollar Futures +68 pips 2 trades/1 winner
Japanese Yen Futures +96 pips 1 trade/1 winner

Current winning percentage 14/19 73.68%

With 20 round turn commissions.
 
Quote from Spooz Top:

agreed......this is big......& i will be looking to sell the hell out of this bloated pig on lifts up......for those thinking they missed the move,i believe this is only the beginning of carnage & look to blast the living hell out of 1375.
bear markets are my strength as i trade them immensly better than a bull.

you showed nice discipline kicking that car Saxon........unlike our unfortunate poster named eddie,whom is sitting on a ticking time bomb.......a 20 car/ 10 point loser with unlimited downside & no risk defined.

can you say blown up!

BLOOMBERG, October 8th =>

"Investors are paying the most ever to protect against a drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, data compiled by Morgan Stanley show. The gap between the price of so-called put options on the benchmark for U.S. equity and the cost to wager on further gains has averaged about 8 percentage points since August. That's more than the previous high in July 2001, before the index dropped 34 percent and fell to the lowest this decade."[...]implied volatility, a measure that calculates expected price swings of an underlying asset and is used as a barometer for options prices, shows many investors are betting that stocks may fall.

Too many people pessimistic tend to be best bullish signals. If you watch out for 1375 to occur this year, you are on the wrong side of the fence...:D :cool:
 
Oh boy.....

Quote from JSSPMK:

Pekelo, these are his results from Eclectic, let's discuss :)

If you have driven 100K miles without an accident or ticket, then on one day you are not paying attention and you pass a standing schoolbus and kill 4 students in the process...

Oh, nevermind.... :)

P.S.: I didn't realize that he was averaging up, so he actually lost more than 7 pts. Anyway, waiting for the next trade, hopefully better...
 
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