ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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speeches by both Paulson and Bernie are telegraphing a rate cut. The rate cut plus combined with seasonal factors should have us attempt to test highs. As we progress, people will attempt to short it at each leg.
the past few cycles have been some of the worst news combined with financial market volatility. Pretty much most everyone who are weak players have stayed out of the market, as demonstrated by lack of volume traded. New money wont flow in till the trend blatantly is jubilant, since there have been many false starts.
if it can get to 1480 I will double my size of the quantity bought at 1520 and above.
if it gets to 1400 I will buy 4 times the quantity at 1520. At 1240, my size will be 8 times. I believe in the macro forces at work globally, combined with low interest rates, there are significant boom cycles secondary to petro dollar wealth in Russia, and outsourcing wealth in India, export wealth in China. The dynamos fuel themselves. If you do some research on SWF's, you will see huge amounts of wealth looking for returns, lower dollar, plus consolidated patterns in US equities should lead to inflows of significant proportions. These inflows will result as the current administration leaves the US political scene.
there is a golden age of technological rebirth globally, ask yourselves where the world will be 10 years out. And whos goods and services will be needed for the rebirth to occur.
i just don`t see it Spec........they can telegraph all the rate cuts they want...they buried themselves with the .50 they did last time when they should`ve defended the USD & made a stand against inflation like Volcker did in the early `80`s.
it` obvious to me that they are promoting inflation & debasing the USD.......slice it any way you want but is see the `70`s stagflation....which is no growth/ inflation rampant.
i`ve never been as bearish as i am right now,that includes 99/2k..on the economy & equities as a whole.
fed liquidity & rate cuts worked once upon a time.....everything works until they stop working & then it`s time to find another solution.people are losing faith in the fed...the phony institution that it is.....& that is a bad thing.
you say you`ll avg down to 1400? even if you are a well capitalized trader,don`t you think that is a bit of a stretch?
you`re going to have to accept a losing trade as just that sooner or later.......it does`nt sound like you have defined your risk on this play whatsoever....at what point are you going to acknowledge your uncle points?
it` obvious to me that they are promoting inflation & debasing the USD.......slice it any way you want but is see the `70`s stagflation....which is no growth/ inflation rampant.
i`ve never been as bearish as i am right now,that includes 99/2k..on the economy & equities as a whole.
fed liquidity & rate cuts worked once upon a time.....everything works until they stop working & then it`s time to find another solution.people are losing faith in the fed...the phony institution that it is.....& that is a bad thing.
you say you`ll avg down to 1400? even if you are a well capitalized trader,don`t you think that is a bit of a stretch?
you`re going to have to accept a losing trade as just that sooner or later.......it does`nt sound like you have defined your risk on this play whatsoever....at what point are you going to acknowledge your uncle points?
I probably posted the link, but I use larger period MA's, on the daily chart. If the MA's flip, I will exit out. So far they are indicating a bull market from daily price action.
The other aspect you have to understand is its a rigged system, the FED and CB's are powerful agencies, no matter how the detractors may protray them. Its a interlinked system, FED/trading houses/CB's/politicians/Global Power alliances.
If China doesn't want a protectionist country with dwindling exports, money from their national fund, will find their way to support the markets. This past week it might have flown under the radar, but the Chinese were miffed at us for inviting the Dalai Lama. The BOJ is realizing the liquidity they took out the system, they will have to reinject it back in a far larger fashion.
Pessimists never really make money in equities. If the system wasn't rigged so much, I would agree.
about 400K 50% of it is excess capital. If you started with larger initial quanities, obviously much more capital would be needed to fund the trade.
1 guy professing ES and NQ are equal for long-term position sizing, and another calculating dip-buying all the way down 18% from current levels!
ES and NQ are different animals. 1 is large cap, $50 per point, 500 components traded on multiple venues. NQ is tech-based, $20 per point, 100 components traded on 1 venue. I call that diversification, aka spreading risk through use of multiple categories and/or instruments. Yea, they are the same and all venues (and all business sectors) ALWAYS move in unison.
As for the other, if you think ES is going to drop, why are you planning the 1-sided counter attack? Right, because you can time those macro-based, significant-sized moves to coincide with expirations and dip-buying ALWAYS works. Why not buy ETFs, average down, and collect dividends? No expirations or rollovers, lower transaction costs, dividend accrual, liquidity, even options availability.
You guys have changed the flavor of the punch. Your advises are too radical for me.
Newbies beware. Hillary for President.
Im done in this thread.
See y'all at the Teller's window
Osorico
ES and NQ are different animals. 1 is large cap, $50 per point, 500 components traded on multiple venues. NQ is tech-based, $20 per point, 100 components traded on 1 venue. I call that diversification, aka spreading risk through use of multiple categories and/or instruments. Yea, they are the same and all venues (and all business sectors) ALWAYS move in unison.
As for the other, if you think ES is going to drop, why are you planning the 1-sided counter attack? Right, because you can time those macro-based, significant-sized moves to coincide with expirations and dip-buying ALWAYS works. Why not buy ETFs, average down, and collect dividends? No expirations or rollovers, lower transaction costs, dividend accrual, liquidity, even options availability.
You guys have changed the flavor of the punch. Your advises are too radical for me.
Newbies beware. Hillary for President.
Im done in this thread.
See y'all at the Teller's window
Osorico
pessimist/optimist.........take your pick & you chose optimist...............i choose to be a realist...i live in the here & the now & allow daily price action to tell me where to be positioned along with the short/mid term pic for balance.
most would probably laugh at us when you say that this is a rigged game...........but trust me,i know it is & noone understands this more than i,so i`m in full agreement there.....the fed is controlled by CB`s....it`s there job to transfer wealth through inflation & debasing currency.
i still can`t comprehend you cost avg`ing down to those levels on ES no matter where your ma`s are or where the dominant trend lies.......why not just become an investor because that is not of a trading mindset........not to mention throwing R/R right out the window.
price analogs on monthly timeframe.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=364815#post364815
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=364815#post364815
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