You sure that isn't a picture of that crazy slide at Adventure Island?!?!
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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You sure that isn't a picture of that crazy slide at Adventure Island?!?!
...ok here is my spx weekly chart... with rsi
....notice the declining trendline on rsi tops
.... it is not saying that we are in a bear market for sure...
... but if we are ..... and if we decline to more than august lows.... there is the potential for a huge M top
... will be looking for positive divergence on the daily chart from here on out....
....notice the declining trendline on rsi tops
.... it is not saying that we are in a bear market for sure...
... but if we are ..... and if we decline to more than august lows.... there is the potential for a huge M top
... will be looking for positive divergence on the daily chart from here on out....
Everyone screaming bloody murder has to get ya thinkin.....
Have a good weekend all.
Have a good weekend all.
Today was a pretty classic SDD (Step Down Day) that I already discussed in my ADU timeline thread. I will quote the relevant part, just for weekend reading and analysis:
"There is actually an opposite of ADU, that I call SDD. SDD stands for Step Down Day, and it is the pattern how a certain type of selloff day advances. The name comes because of the chart looks like a step, a big drop first, consolidation next and another big drop into the close.
SDD is pretty much the mirror image of an ADU. The timeline goes like this:
1. Dow drops a decent -100 or more by 11 am. (Lately there tends to be a midday bottom around 11:40)*
2. For the next 3 hours there is a sideway consolidation, when the Dow is bouncing between the BBs.
3. Further drop after 2 pm.**
Timing it I use the already mentioned BBs and W %R. If you have new lows after 2 pm, just stay short until at least 3:30..."
* Today it was at 11:35
** Today it started on cue, at 1:55 pm
"There is actually an opposite of ADU, that I call SDD. SDD stands for Step Down Day, and it is the pattern how a certain type of selloff day advances. The name comes because of the chart looks like a step, a big drop first, consolidation next and another big drop into the close.
SDD is pretty much the mirror image of an ADU. The timeline goes like this:
1. Dow drops a decent -100 or more by 11 am. (Lately there tends to be a midday bottom around 11:40)*
2. For the next 3 hours there is a sideway consolidation, when the Dow is bouncing between the BBs.
3. Further drop after 2 pm.**
Timing it I use the already mentioned BBs and W %R. If you have new lows after 2 pm, just stay short until at least 3:30..."
* Today it was at 11:35
** Today it started on cue, at 1:55 pm
Ultimately, good trading is about trading your system as it has been laid-out before you or (more likely) you have designed it. This is true regardless of what is happening with one individual trade, or even series of trades if the concepts which the system are based on are fundamentally sound.
B1S2's trading exemplifies that process in that he follows his system consistently across all instruments traded, day-in / day-out, and at the end of the day, it produces the results that he has designed it to, which is to make money.
To all of the prognosticators, some of you are very talented indeed, and if you're laying the cash on the line with your calls you're definitely brining home the bank, but trading isn't about being able to divine the future, it is about being focused on the present ... and executing your system in a very precise fashion, according to the rules that it has been designed by, whether they require you to trade 5 to 10 times a day, or 3 to 5 times a year.
Good trading,
JJ
P.S. Special shout-out to Spooz Top and Pekelo, they both nailed the crap out of (yet another) vicious downturn.
P.P.S. Just anyone thinks I am a proponent of B1S2's system, I am not. My trading is more like a combo of Osorico and f9, taking the ticks the market will give me and compounding contracts as I increase the account size. However, I most definitely am a fanboy of the strategic and tactical approach that he takes to his trading ... and the fact that results of one position, or one trade will never really hurt'em ... I wonder what Vic thinks about that idea.
B1S2's trading exemplifies that process in that he follows his system consistently across all instruments traded, day-in / day-out, and at the end of the day, it produces the results that he has designed it to, which is to make money.
To all of the prognosticators, some of you are very talented indeed, and if you're laying the cash on the line with your calls you're definitely brining home the bank, but trading isn't about being able to divine the future, it is about being focused on the present ... and executing your system in a very precise fashion, according to the rules that it has been designed by, whether they require you to trade 5 to 10 times a day, or 3 to 5 times a year.
Good trading,
JJ
P.S. Special shout-out to Spooz Top and Pekelo, they both nailed the crap out of (yet another) vicious downturn.
P.P.S. Just anyone thinks I am a proponent of B1S2's system, I am not. My trading is more like a combo of Osorico and f9, taking the ticks the market will give me and compounding contracts as I increase the account size. However, I most definitely am a fanboy of the strategic and tactical approach that he takes to his trading ... and the fact that results of one position, or one trade will never really hurt'em ... I wonder what Vic thinks about that idea.
...b1s2 has said that he is trying to catch the big fish....
.... and that he is not worried about giving back the small ones....
..... i have a feeling that when the next big move happens... he will again be positioned
.... big respect to b1s2 for being classy and very patient with his detractors
... and for sharing that part of his methodology that is worth sharing
.....noob.....respect....
.... and that he is not worried about giving back the small ones....
..... i have a feeling that when the next big move happens... he will again be positioned
.... big respect to b1s2 for being classy and very patient with his detractors
... and for sharing that part of his methodology that is worth sharing
.....noob.....respect....
...history does not repeat itself ?
....yeah right.....
... finding this chart is what turned me on to the rising wedge from 18.75 to the highs...
... year is 2004
....notice that both then and now..... there was the very rare W top followed by rare M bottom ... followed by the rising wedge scenario
..... the immdediate reason this market dropped was because it went "too far too fast" due to Fed trickery
....yeah right.....
... finding this chart is what turned me on to the rising wedge from 18.75 to the highs...
... year is 2004
....notice that both then and now..... there was the very rare W top followed by rare M bottom ... followed by the rising wedge scenario
..... the immdediate reason this market dropped was because it went "too far too fast" due to Fed trickery
No. The trade was a real one with real losses. I simply put it on recently when I was asked to post an entry and exit. I called it a demonstration trade because I wanted to show some of the concepts that I believe in, namely following the trend, using position sizing, making less decisions and not averaging in. --I firmly believe that when the trend is up, it is hard to lose large sums of money trading from the long side. I will agree here with Smiler that position sizing is also part of that equation and in my view is more important than the actual entry. I put the trade on at 1537.75 and then added to it several times which caused my average price to rise. This also creates more decisions to be made by trying to pick a correct entry for an add on. Certainly I could have added when it dipped below my initial entry. I did not and that was a mistake. Putting all of your position on at once and taking it all off at once is the best way to go. It simply creates too many places for errors to be made when you average in and you will have a smaller position on when the trade goes to the moon. This is what I am interested in-----homeruns with full position on. Thus, I have no problem giving back gains to find those homeruns. Yesterday, I decided to get out before 1518.75 when we failed to bounce from the mid 30's. As the longer term trend is still up, I will now be looking for fresh longs in both NQ and ES with full position on ( I consider them to be one and the same for position sizing, so a full position could be divided between the two). So the demonstration trade, while it could be said to be a bad trade, really did accomplish what I wanted it to do, which was to be helpful in illustrating my points enumerated above. One last item here which may help explain why I wasn't too enamored of the mid 1580's to get out-- The ES loss realized on Friday was less than 3% of the gains that I realized Friday in NQ. If I had a full position in ES in the mid 1580's and it looked like downtrend there, then perhaps it would have sense. It's all about the size of the position. Thanks for all the critique. It's good for the journal and may help others.
thanks for the explanation,B1........i know short term trading is not your expertise but i have to admit that i was dissapointed in the way you handled that day trade.to get up & walk away with hopes that it gets back to you range was an irresponsible way to handle such a short term trade.....or any trade by not defining risk & R/R scenario.
Question: to everyone here......whom,aside from Spec went home Long into the weekend?
wether trapped at higher price( Black Guard).....or bot my 07 target on the close looking for a pop?
Question: to everyone here......whom,aside from Spec went home Long into the weekend?
wether trapped at higher price( Black Guard).....or bot my 07 target on the close looking for a pop?
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