ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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1551.50 (just touched) is 50% retrace of decline from 1556.50 to 1546.50. Do we penetrate and continue up, or do be bounce off of it and resume down? Only the shadow knows.
EDIT: I'm long from 1550.50 because I think the trend is up, but admittedly it's a complete crapshoot and I probably would have been wiser to stay on the sidelines. (Yes, Doctor, I do have a problem with overtrading.)
EDIT: I'm long from 1550.50 because I think the trend is up, but admittedly it's a complete crapshoot and I probably would have been wiser to stay on the sidelines. (Yes, Doctor, I do have a problem with overtrading.)
Quote from vertigo3:
Just the facts:
S2 pivot point for today was 1546.50,
LOD (so far) has been 1546.50.
Rule of 10 was 1546.50 (Thank you Spooz_Top for mentioning it).
Name of idiot who cancelled buy limit at 1547.00 (for 3 or 4 pt bounce): vertigo3
I had a limit buy at 47.25 but instead bot on strength at 48.75 at 2:39 after ES touched 47.25 (but did not trade through) the second time.
Buying on strength after a double bottom--a sure thing, right?
Of course not.
Basically I cancelled an order only to buy a short-term top. Some call that trend trading, but some may call it being an idiot.
I call it being human.
It then went under 47.25, almost hit my stop, and THEN strongly bounced back. I finally got out at 51 at 3:14, having been patient for a change.
We may get that strong close after all. And unless I can find a good reason to get back in, and I am still trying to find one, I won't be there for it. Then who will the idiot be?
You can be so, so right in this game and still make much, much less than you should.
What you are describing is a "new" chartpattern, I call let's say "almost failed W bottom". It has been happening more and more often recently. Today's version can be seen best on the NDX chart.
Here is how it works: W bottom forms, then it fails to pass the middle level of the W and falls lower then the 2 previos bottom. But from there it rallies back forcefully.
On ES the first bottom was at 1547.50 around 2 pm and the second came 30 mins later at the same level. From there it was only be able to come up to 1549.25 and fall further back to 1546.50, below the previous 2 bottoms. And the rally came from there, going up to 1551.50...
if you quit while you are ahead, you will avoid both potential losses and potential gains.
A poor trader should probably quit while ahead, because he will not be ahead for much longer.
A good trader should NOT quit while ahead, because the odds are that over the long haul more gains will be lost than losses will be avoided.
IOW, if you are successful at what you do, shouldn't you try to do it as often as possible?
Good question!
Seems to me that there are times when I'm "in the zone" and am able to move with the ebb and flow of the market with ease and accuracy. This morning was one of those times...seemed like I could do no wrong.
Then there are times (like yesterday or this afternoon) when I feel like I really don't have a clue. It's those times when I need to be disciplined enough to stay on the sidelines until I "get the flick" instead of trading anyway for fear of missing out on a move.
I don't know whether it's possible to create some objective rule for when I should keep my fingers off the mouse, but clearly there are such times.
One of the things I admire most about our friend Apex82 (whose presence here I miss) is his amazing patience. He can sit on his hands and stay on the sidelines for days at a time until exactly the right entry point comes along. That's a skill I need to work on.
So perhaps "quit while I'm ahead" is the wrong turn of phrase. Maybe "quit when I'm out of the zone" is better.
Good trading, all. See you tomorrow.
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