ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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To elaborate my thinking: Prior swing high was 1552, so that should provide support here. Below that, 1544-45 provided very strong resistance which should now be very strong support. So two possible scenarios here are (1) a double bottom at 1552, and (2) an inverted head & shoulders at 52-44-52. My current long from 1553.00 is a very low-risk bet on the #1 scenario. But it could easily be wrong.Quote from mbusch:
If this is a double bottom, I'm a hero. If this is the left shoulder of an inverted H&S, I'm a bum.
I figure B1S2 approves of my entry but not of my close stop.
The 1552.00 swing high to which I referred occurred on 09/19/07 at 11:30 ET. That level was not seen again until yesterday (10/01/07). In the intervening two weeks, the 1444-1445 resistance level was tested unsuccessfully at least 7 times before it was penetrated to the upside yesterday. Consequently, I would consider 1445-1445 to be strong support and 1552 to be weaker support (but I'll take it).
Stop moved to breakeven. I do not like the low volume here (not even lunchtime yet). It is possible that the last hour's slow upside action has been a bear flag and that further downside movement could occur. Remaining long here, but only playing on house money.
Of course, it's also possible that we're just seeing basing action here, and things will rocket upwards later today. If that happens, I'm properly positioned long.
I agree volume is bad, plus it needs to clear the 50% at 56.25 and without V it may be hard. I would like to see a long entry today at 49-50. I agree with your 52, but I use cash price due to eroding premium so that puts the line at ~ 1550 for es.
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