ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from mbusch:

Why would you expect it to rise to 42-43 before heading down?

The rapid decline you mentioned went roughly from 44 to 37. It then retraced to about the 50% point, which is the most likely retracement. If there's another leg down, don't you think it's most likely from current levels (40-41)?

EDIT:
44 is a very important resistance level, which has been tested at least 5 times in the past week without breaking. If we get up to 42, it will be to retest the 44 level. Confirmed failure to penetrate the 44 zone represents a low-risk shorting opportunity IMHO.
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MB glad to see you are back, hope you had a nice trip. I agree 100% with your analysis, this is why I've been making the short trade I posted yesterday at 1542 with my stop just above 1545.

Edit: I'm not taking the trade near the close today. currently flat
 
Quote from osorico:

Im glad I asked. :)

So JJ, is 1:1 your "normal" r/r per trade? What if you are wrong? Do you make more than 1 trade per day in that case? Or do you make multiple trades per day anyway? Just asking. BTW: I don't use a particular r/r. Mines per trade, based on price levels, which is greatly affected by volatility. That's where disciplined risk management comes in.

Osorico
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Details, details, details.

I monitor the Indices, MER and the Internals to keep my ear to the ground (so to speak) before taking a position on.

I like to catch reversals, because it's my nature to be opposite, and as a trader it is the only way of trading that "feels" right to me, the reason I keep an eye on the other stuff is to keep from steping in front of a train (which happens now and then).

I don't use timeframe, I use range bars (lookup ProfLogic/Cynthia Kase, etc. for anyone who wants to know more about volume bars and constant range bars, in that order - although they were actually invented by a guy in Brazil I think, who needed a way to anlayze price action, and that minute bars weren't doing it for him because price action was so immediate and volatile - think "last FOMC meeting").

Sometimes I'll take less than 2pts, or have to exit a trade at breaken or a slight loss if things aren't really going my way (what can I say, any profit is a good profit to me). I'm trying to learn to hold on to winners

I don't actually use fixed stops either, I look for a condition (or set of conditions) to be maintained, but I don't like going to far past 2-3 pts ES, (which is why I like to trade the other indices, you get a lot more leeway to work with).

Good trading,

JJ
 
The problem with calculations like this is that you're trading 600 contracts at the EOY. Seems like that would be tougher than 10 or 20 contracts.


Quote from opt789:

Jimmy,

If you trade one contract per $5000, then that would be 40% per month ROI. A mere 50k account turns into about 3 million in one year if you compound once per month.

Just wondering how long you have been making 40% per month? I am not saying you aren't, just curious.
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Example:

I was short from 1542, price went up to 1544, so I averaged in instead of taking a loss.
Why?

The original conditions that set the Short up still held, so I kept the position on.

Just closed the position at scratch (+0.25).
Why?

Over the frame of refrence that I'm looking at, the price action has gone bullish and I'm expecting a ramp-up into the close.

So I'm Long at 1542.25

Hope that helps.

Good trading,

JJ
 
Quote from blackchip:

The problem with calculations like this is that you're trading 600 contracts at the EOY. Seems like that would be tougher than 10 or 20 contracts.
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Exactly :p

I didn't have the time to figure-out how he got that figure, but the max I plan on going with this system is 20 contracts (waiting for the day) :D :D :D
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As everyone saw from my other posts, I hit a lot of singles, a good amount of bunts, and an occasional double, so it's gonna take a while.

Good trading,

JJ
 
Quote from RichardRimes:

thx...I agree the tape has been poor...bulls, bears, no inbetween and looking like a fade down after the close.
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I personally think it closes up, but hey, that can perception change on a dime, to be quite honest with you.

Good trading,

JJ
 
Just throwing this out there, but isn't it likely that the market moves up until at least the end of the quarter?

It's still got a few points to go to reach the hi from a couple of months ago. Seem like that would be a likely target.

The fed and the ibanks would probably hold back any bad news until at then as well. I'm suspicious of the open market activity today tho.
 
Quote from blackchip:

The problem with calculations like this is that you're trading 600 contracts at the EOY. Seems like that would be tougher than 10 or 20 contracts.
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JJ said that he thought averaging 2 points net per contract per day was "doable". How many traders have you heard of that average 40% per month every month (and that is with no compounding)?

I will agree with you that compounding ad infinitum is impossible of course, but trading 500 contracts during RTH would not be a problem.

Is there anyone on this board that wants to claim a multiyear track record of averaging 2 points net per contract per day by leveraged daytrading?

I ask this not to cause trouble, I ask because I have seen multiple threads on this and the answers always range from it is literally impossible to average even 1 point, to others claiming it is more than possible.

Any comments are appreciated.
 
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