ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[satchel]

Back in the pool for 1537. Bueller? Bueller?

 

[2006]

Fuck that shit -- I'm short. That Buffet news is/was bullshit.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from smilingsynic:

Right now, there is congestion--if there weren't, I wouldn't have time to post.

Oops, There WAS congestion--breakout on high volume thru 1535 means that the trend isnow up. I will be looking to buy on pullbacks (I don't chase breakouts).

I'll try to get back to this later...

OK, Saxon, I have a minute here. I'll try to do this one sentence at a time.

Point blank, ES tried but failed to get down to below 1529, which is unchanged. Failure to penetrate to new lows in order to "fill the gap" demonstrated to me that there were no more sellers; those who were long were not willing to sell, and buyers were eager to snap up what the sellers were offering. Those long contracts were waiting for higher prices; therefore, new buyers would have to pay up. As they pay up, prices rise.

One of my principles that I have written down in my trading journal is this: "When the market gaps up, and then trades down to a point that there is a swing low above the gap, there generally is at least another strong move up for the day. When the market gaps down, and then trades up to a point that there is a swing high below the gap, there is generally at least another strong move down for the day. Gap (or strong move) plus mid-day consolidation equals late afternoon continuation."

Frankly, this afternoon's breakout surprised me. I had been looking for a while for a good place to buy, and when I gave up looking, I missed it. The market was playing possum, and then snapped back to life.

Should I beat myself up for missing it? No--I'll get it next time. Perfectionism is a bad personality trait to have as a trader.

That is life; you cannot catch every trend. Don't think for a minute that there are perfect traders out there working for some firm that capture every single trade and walk away each day with 2-3 ATR.

I finally got my pullback, but 3:45 is too late for the day.

 

[satchel]

Nice points about the mid-swing points to look for on gap play, ss.

Got my last batch to unload, who wants it. Fire sale.

 

[osorico]

Quote from 2006:

Fuck that shit -- I'm short. That Buffet news is/was bullshit.

It's an old intraday"rule"...
when big market moves (in reference to current) occur based solely on micro-events (ie specific company, specific sector, etc) and forgets about the macro scenario, fade the move.

This morning was GM, this afternoon was BSC.

Osorico

 

[2006]

If 33 breaks we will get some pain. There was some heavy buying there -- they will need to unload if we head lower.

 

[Chuck Krug]

/sells spy oct 151 put @1.8 -0.2
/s spy oct 154 put @3.00 -0.45
all out
back to the drawingboard for me

 

[satchel]

What a freaking day.

 

[2006]

Holding short -- Looking for 1526.

If it gets there it'll most likely go much lower.

 

[satchel]

The 1518, 1520 on ES was still a key buy a couple days ago. Each day is unfolding per the schema. (ahh, Higher!), with enough volatility to keep everyone (retail) sufficiently guessing.

The quarter is ending this week.

The managers will be buying or the appearance thereof.

A ride back to last weeks highs on ES.

So a continued swing play up.

Have a great night!