ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from volente_00:

There is still an 18% chance that you are right on the trade.





:D
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I just peek at my P/L and it looks like a tad more than 18% of my trades end as winners.
 
We have been going down since 11:30 a.m on 9/19. Right through the drooling sentiment and CNBC noise. Good for you if you have been on the right side of that since then (I know I have not been that consistent).

Prevailing sentiment seems another 10 points down before a miraculous albatross to new heights. IMO the low was today, or barring that tomorrow premarket.

Probably business as usual and tomorrow is a reverse mirror of today.

Either way, this week, with all the econ releases starting up again, should be tradeable short/long whatever your persuasion. My favorite conditions.

Sanity check and worrisome is BKX. It has retraced almost entirely back to it's pre-fomc move. I will let that change my opinion on the above. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=INDEX_BKX
 
take a look at the 60 minute candle bars... and what the power players are doing...

they build up a house of cards, and bam with a bar or two destroy the whole construct.

so what do you think is happening.

who has the power to destroy price like that?
 

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Quote from Spectre2007:

take a look at the 60 minute candle bars... and what the power players are doing...

they build up a house of cards, and bam with a bar or two destroy the whole construct.

so what do you think is happening.

who has the power to destroy price like that?
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The only problem is the volume.
 
Distribution for a few days was planned from the moment (who am I kidding, day before) the 50:50 was released. That's all. Retail. Weak hands shook. Same scams, different day. Interesting visual though on larger frame.
 
heres a mental excercise take 5 players put them at the table, give each player the respective amount of cash pool

player 1: 10,000

player 2: 100

player 3: 100

player 4: 100

player 5: 100

commodity is 1 dollar per lot.

what kind of dynamics develop?....when you can see what all the players are doing?
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

heres a mental excercise take 5 players put them at the table, give each player the respective amount of cash pool

player 1: 10,000

player 2: 100

player 3: 100

player 4: 100

player 5: 100

commodity is 1 dollar per lot.

what kind of dynamics develop?....when you can see what all the players are doing?
More...

players 2-5 will be overleveraged/undercapitalized/.....

player 1 can literally throw the market around, and oscillate price to extremes to shake out players 2-5 positions. Eventually those players will be out of the game.

or player 5 jumps on board which ever direction player 1 decides to take the market. As long as he follows player 1, he is safe from price oscillation.

the other truism is, player 1 has to constantly revitalize cash reserves to be able to push price around. Otherwise its 'dead money' it has no power. And thats what your seeing on the 60 minute red bars. Players 1 types revitalize cash pools.

The actual price where trading occurs has no bearing to the ultimate goal of player 1. Its the ability have players 2-5 buy at the peak and sell at the valleys through fear and greed or running stops which forces them out.
 
....first 15 min long signal given at 28.25 .... 3pm
....second 15 min long signal given at 26.5 .... 645pm
.... also long signal on hourly chart from friday pre-market low of 28.50

... one possibility is we have another repeat of the last two days .....long signal and then short signal midday....
..... until we test the 50% level at 1518

....if we have another repeat day.... then i expect the hourly bull divergence to become even stronger....

.... some consolidation is reasonable.... after all .... we are overbought on the daily.... only the 2nd time we have been overbought since beginning this correction
..... could be wrong
.....respect
 
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