ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from volente_00:

Many losing trades start out as day trades, then they turn to swing trades and then they turn to 401k holds.

:)
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I'm learning this as I trade ETFs trying to prepare for the YM and ES. I've held on to some DXD way too long (since mid-August), and I held on too long the last two days in my intraday trading as well.
I had 9 positive intraday trades yesterday: +$331.87, +$1.80, +$70.33, +$136.83, +$289.09, +$30.94, +$65.35, +$98.24...and one negative - $841.91
then today +$77.60, +$51.82, +$11.59, +$116.59, +$81.63, +$67.43...and another huge negative trade -$690.94.....stupid.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Do you have ANY evidence for this assertion?

:-)
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The assertion is that gap analysis is unecessary and should be discarded. It doesn't mean there is absolutely no value in it, it just means that it is too much info and you don't need it to trade. I have never used volume or gap analysis. I find them to be not needed. Non essential are discarded. :)
 
Quote from vertigo3:

B1S2,
can you post a chart of the non-divergence? This starting to seem kind of subjective as to what "divergence" is.
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Yes. If I get a chance tonight or tomorrow, I will. Signing off for the evening. See you again soon. :)
 
the mood of the markets has definitely changed, its becoming more negative as the bond and dollar markets, loose value. Usually a FED decision when viewed favorably has positive affects on the bond market.

the larger bond rally is giving up its gains in a very swift manner, and should end up testing yields in the 5.3% on ten year notes.

the economic reports aren't coming in weak as expected. There is a segregated economy, the rich are doing pretty well, and the poor who rely on the rich to spend are just getting by. As inflation eats away their purchasing power food/gasoline.

Its seems we just confirmed a long term bear market in bonds, stocks in this situation can continue to raise till bonds offer high enough returns to pull money away from stocks, and we aren't there yet.

We will reinflate, and the stock market should enjoy the support from it, the rally may not be as jubilant. Secondary to bond/dollar bearish tendencies. But a long term sideways market can be in the cards....1965 was one.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

This is why daytrade size should always be equal or less than overnight size. Most failed daytraders do not recognize this and do the exact opposite.
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A competent, disciplined daytrader can trade more size than a competent, disciplined position (overnight) trader. Why? Simply put, there is less risk. No overnight gaps for the daytrader. Less time in market means less risk.

Daytraders who let their (FAILED) trades turn into overnight trades, and short-term traders who transform their trades into longer-term position trades, lack discipline. Unless they change, they will be long-term losers.

I remember many, many years ago when I first started trading turning a short-term trade in Boston Chicken (the stock was called Boston Chicken even though the stores were called Boston MARKET) into a long-term investment. It ended up being a great tax writeoff (no, I did not hold until BC became BK--I got out around 8 after having bought in the mid-teens).

A rookie mistake, and lesson learned!
 
Quote from volente_00:

The problem with your trade was you let a 4 point loser turn into a 8 point loss. Why not use a trailing stop and avoid having winners turn into losers ?
If the the trend was still up, why did you sell the last long at 1488.50 ?
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Volente,

Trend traders expect to take some heat, and eight points is really not that much for a longer-term trade that can cover several days, but if they are disciplined to hold on to their winners, one gain can equal 5-10 losses.

This sounds like B1S2.

The exact same thing can be said about disciplined countertrend traders too, such as yourself.

The one thing that strikes me about many here is the discipline to not ride down losses and, sometimes, to ride out gains as far as possible. Even Saxon is on board now! :-)
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Volente,

Trend traders expect to take some heat, and eight points is really not that much for a longer-term trade that can cover several days, but if they are disciplined to hold on to their winners, one gain can equal 5-10 losses.

This sounds like B1S2.

The exact same thing can be said about disciplined countertrend traders too, such as yourself.

The one thing that strikes me about many here is the discipline to not ride down losses and, sometimes, to ride out gains as far as possible. Even Saxon is on board now! :-)
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8 points seems high to me for a daytrade which is what this started out as.
 
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