spooz 100% correct. it matters little what the fed does tommorrow there's real problems out there. after the close bank of america said this is serious. feds in a box with $81 oil and everything from wheat to corn going wild. the only thing that held the market up the last 4 weeks was waiting on the fed and nervous shorts. once the fed fires there bullet its over.whatever they do will be viewed as bad. wouldn't suprise me if they spike this a few days to screw all the leaning shorts but oct should be a dousy. i've hit the short side 2 times big this year and i'm 1/2 loaded for another shot. i liken it to a leaky damm thats been plugged 100 places and finally 1 stress pt is hit and the damm collapses. the only miracle is were not at 1k right now. there's a good 6 weeks here to play the short side but i still don't like to be short from oct end to dec 31st
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
Historically once cutting begins , the market has been higher short term 3- 6 months out the majority of the time. One of the few times this was not true was during 01. Maybe this time will be different.
The etf SPY closed RIGHT AT the 50 day sma.
Doubt that will happen tomorrow, obviously!
No positions--just waiting. I don't gamble.
Doubt that will happen tomorrow, obviously!
No positions--just waiting. I don't gamble.
when price movement screw the most number of people what does it do?
Wanted to open this important trading day with some sayings from Sun Tzu which would seem appropriate to the market and the trader.
Therefore One hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the most skillful. Seizing the enemy without fighting is the most skillful.
So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will win a hundred times in a hundred battles. If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you win one and lose the next. If you do not know yourself or your enemy, you will always lose.
War is of vital importance to the state and should not be engaged carelessly
--------------Basically if you don't see it, you don't see it, don't force the trade, even though its a important day. Trading should be easy as picking money off the floor.
Contagion and scarcity heuristic will be working overtime today.
Therefore One hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the most skillful. Seizing the enemy without fighting is the most skillful.
So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will win a hundred times in a hundred battles. If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you win one and lose the next. If you do not know yourself or your enemy, you will always lose.
War is of vital importance to the state and should not be engaged carelessly
--------------Basically if you don't see it, you don't see it, don't force the trade, even though its a important day. Trading should be easy as picking money off the floor.
Contagion and scarcity heuristic will be working overtime today.
both ends of the ATR will be hit today. Thats how the maximum number of stops and pain will be inflicted. A prudent MM would be fully hedged going into the meeting. After the announcement, the battle for price sentiment dominance will be waged. So the belief that the market is heavily long at this point may not be true.
for the past few months, positional shorts could not be placed secondary to FED risk, once the announcement is made, the positional shorts might try to get placed if its only 25 basis, if its 50 basis, prudent thing would be to wait for the market to test higher levels, mainly 1520/13800 in ES/YM.
Most markets will try to test both ends of the ATR. Bond/Equities. If its 50 basis, we could churn around the 1520-1500 level, letting MM's distribute to the public.
Looking for 114-112 range in bonds today.
since the UK government is going to insure NR deposits, a bit of anxiety is removed from the system. The FED may only cut 25 basis to preserve some moral hazard.
GBPUSD is in value zone at the moment.
GBPUSD is in value zone at the moment.
- Status