ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[volente_00]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrarian#Contrarian_Investing

 

[2006]

I'm looking for a higher high (3 little indians) ideally before/if we get any significant downside. Longer term this market can go either way -- best to trade the intraday momo swings with this vol.

 

[saliva]

I see a glaring H&S on the 5 minute chart. We could get pushed back down to where we came from. Did you take your profit yet?

 

[volente_00]

Quote from saliva:

I see a glaring H&S on the 5 minute chart. We could get pushed back down to where we came from. Did you take your profit yet?

Never short a dull market.

 

[HolyGrail]

Quote from saliva:

I see a glaring H&S on the 5 minute chart. We could get pushed back down to where we came from. Did you take your profit yet?

True, but the target of that pattern has already been hit. The pattern is over, at least in my eyes.

 

[volente_00]

out at 95.25 on half

 

[volente_00]

Quote from Spectre2007:

n human psychology, a mental heuristic in which the mind values something based on how easily it may lose it, especially to competitors.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarcity_heuristic

very dangerous when being attempted at top of ATR's or weekly ranges.

now I see these 93's and think, wow ..they are giving these away....what would 90% of the population do, buy or sell here?

what would only 10-5% of the population do?

I think they would sell the 93's to all the late to the party chasers at 95.25

 

[jagmot]

Quote from Spectre2007:

you would think someone knows the retail sales number =p based on the action. How much would you have given to buy 92's during today's sesssion.

Starting to think the retail numbers won't be as bad as everyone thinks and the market will rally on friday. That being said I am flat as I don't think the risk/reward is in my favor for making this trade.

 

[Spectre2007]

Quote from jagmot:

Starting to think the retail numbers won't be as bad as everyone thinks and the market will rally on friday. That being said I am flat as I don't think the risk/reward is in my favor for making this trade.

irrespective, retail sales offers a discount for MM's to run some stops first, gap it down first then immediately up for the rest of the day. The basis for the trade is that the FED creates instability on the short side of the trade more so then the long side.

the theme of weakness will be pervasive, so the objective becomes how far down will they gap it first.

 

[bsparkyman]

With input costs up at least 10% for retailers, back it out of the number. The market will lag this factor. Figure 3-4% passed on and that still leaves your in a big hole even with productivity gains.

Quote from jagmot:

Starting to think the retail numbers won't be as bad as everyone thinks and the market will rally on friday. That being said I am flat as I don't think the risk/reward is in my favor for making this trade.