ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

Status
Not open for further replies.
retail sales should come in exceptionally weak. Will undermine positioning till it comes out.

early signs will be afterhours trading during european session thursday night.
 
Quote from optioncoach:

My bias is towards 1420 on ES within a week or two. Have a small ES position looking to ride to those lows. If not, well will get stopped out on another large day like today...
More...
OC,
Before we can trash ES to the gutter, we'll first need to take out the support at 1435. Once that's taken out, it should be a smooth sailing down to 1375. Good luck.
 
I may have to hold through 20 points of heat but if we can break back lower then a move through 1440 for me would certainly make 1400 a viable target.

ES and YM have formed rising wedges off of the mid August lows and are on the verge of a breakout lower although not confirmed yet so I am in early.the volume on the drop from July highs in ES was a nice growing trend versus the steady drop off in volume on the bounce off of Aug lows.

If the Fed lowers rates .25 (I am still in the IF camp) a momentary bounce is likely but if the fed is worried enough to cut rates then we are in for worse times since rate cut effects lag behind.

1560 JULy highs to 1415 support in mid August is 145 points or so. If we break out of the rising wedge right now (such a wedge being close to middle of measured move), then forecasting out of currnet prices down another 145 points or so puts us at 1325 give or take 10 points since the measured moves are not always exact. I am not sure if we have the steam to get to 1325 but if the economy is going to slow down now then it is a reasonable target by mid October.

Therefore I took a position in ES at 1461 avg and will stay in as long as we dont close strong above 1485. 1485 is 50% retrace of July high to Aug low and we already bounced off of that in late Aug.

So all signs seem to point to a potential run back to 1400. I did SEPT so I might have to roll over if we dont get a decent move in the next week (which the Fed could provide as a catalyst).

I mainly trade intraday but this looks like a decent r/r long-term swing trade.
 
Quote from optioncoach:

I may have to hold through 20 points of heat but if we can break back lower then a move through 1440 for me would certainly make 1400 a viable target.

ES and YM have formed rising wedges off of the mid August lows and are on the verge of a breakout lower although not confirmed yet so I am in early.the volume on the drop from July highs in ES was a nice growing trend versus the steady drop off in volume on the bounce off of Aug lows.

If the Fed lowers rates .25 (I am still in the IF camp) a momentary bounce is likely but if the fed is worried enough to cut rates then we are in for worse times since rate cut effects lag behind.

1560 JULy highs to 1415 support in mid August is 145 points or so. If we break out of the rising wedge right now (such a wedge being close to middle of measured move), then forecasting out of currnet prices down another 145 points or so puts us at 1325 give or take 10 points since the measured moves are not always exact. I am not sure if we have the steam to get to 1325 but if the economy is going to slow down now then it is a reasonable target by mid October.

Therefore I took a position in ES at 1461 avg and will stay in as long as we dont close strong above 1485. 1485 is 505 retrace of July high to Aug low and we already bounced off of that in late Aug.

So all signs seem to point to a potential run back to 1400. I did SEPT so I might have to roll over if we dont get a decent move in the next week (which the Fed could provide as a catalyst).

I mainly trade intraday but this looks like a decent r/r long-term swing trade.
More...
Good analysis. However, my ultimate downside target stands at 1175-ish, provided that the measured move from the July high to the August low is replicated successfully going forward.
 
I would take 1175 lol, but realistic I doubt I would stay in that long. If I had access to options on futures I would probably do a put replacement strategy or protective call which I can do on the cash index perhaps. My only concern now is if I have to roll :D.
 
Quote from saliva:

I dunno what it is, but the chart doesn't look all that bullish in my eyes. Call it my sixth, albeit misplaced, sense. ES currently sitting comfy at 7125 and apparently broke the trendline. The near target is at 6925. Just my opinion, of course. :)
More...


sitting at the 50 % retracement, that 69-70 is support from a few days ago, then 68.5


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.U07.E&v=w



perhaps a gap fill before the sellers return
 
Quote from optioncoach:


Therefore I took a position in ES at 1461 avg and will stay in as long as we dont close strong above 1485. 1485 is 50% retrace of July high to Aug low and we already bounced off of that in late Aug.
More...

I'm seeing 1465.25 SPX Cash as a 50% retracement. Did you mean the 61.8% retracement? I get 1485.12 as the 61.8% retracement, which is where I derived part of my reasoning for major resistance at this level. The others being 50 day MA and 78.6% retracement of 9/4 to 9/10.
 
Quote from volente_00:

1175 ?


I think you will be lucky to get this under 1350 the rest of 07.
More...

the market is aware of the macro scenario, its building up premium for the last wave, usually momentum to the downside, true momentum doesn't build up from a depreciated point.

so premium is being built up to suck in people/new money hopefuls, to trash it.
 
Quote from tommymoose:

I'm seeing 1465.25 SPX Cash as a 50% retracement. Did you mean the 61.8% retracement? I get 1485.12 as the 61.8% retracement, which is where I derived part of my reasoning for major resistance at this level. The others being 50 day MA and 78.6% retracement of 9/4 to 9/10.
More...

Since I am trading ES my fib analysis, as small as it is lol, is only on the ES not the cash. 50% retrace for me is 1485 give or take 3 points on where you measure high.lows.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top