ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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take a loss when you can? please think abou that and some day you will understand price reality....take a win when you can, taking a loss is not a choice....just have a mechanical system that is proven over many months/yrs and market ....using s/r lod hod is mechanical....there are indicator lines that give the gold ...just not the ones you find on your freebie studies........they don't lag past 2 pts...they have worked for 6 yrs...they cannnot mathematically fail ..it is impossible....there is the little friend at the end.of the trend......and the beginning it is called the apex..work on that.......right apex8
 
I use rule of 10 for entries and exits. Yes I trade countertrend. WHY ? Because of reversion to the mean. How many days do you get each month that just go straight up or straight down ? You can't play around when trading this way. You have to be disciplined and always set your stop upon entry. I have a rule where i only am allowed 1 stop out for the day, unless I already have profits. Mostly I cover half at 2 or so points and let the rest ride to break even or into 5 or more points depending on what the market wants to give. Rule of 10 is not set in stone, sometimes it marks a turning point for a 2 point bounce, sometimes it is moves 10+ points from there, and sometimes it is just flat wrong and I take a 2 point loss and move on. The other day there were 4 rule of 10 trades in a row. I don't use it just for entries or exits on intraday, It is useful for finding a point to fade when it moves 10 above previous older s or r from previous days.. You can't control the market, all you can control is the risk. For the month of august my winning trades were 84%. Uusally they average 70-75. The crowd is chasing so I do not want to be a part of them. All I can say is you have to be confident when you step in front of the train and have 100% discipline or you can get spanked if your emotions are unchecked.
I am a fader, give me a spike and I will take my shot. For those of you who say it is easier to trade with the trend, How the hell do you know what the trend is when a econ number gets released and ES jumps 7-10 instantly one way ? How can you see a trend when ES is up 20 points one day, down 30 the next, then up 15 the next ? Buy when others are selling, sell when others are buying. It works for me, but to each his own.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

For weekend entertainment:

When I saw this picture, it reminded me of Saxon's strategy. This technic for fixing a truck can work for a long time, but when it doesn't work....
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When I saw this picture, it reminded me of my broker's strategy of doing business.
 
Quote from brotherben:

so the word trend does not exist then on the ES? If it does, what is it?
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for me it is two ticks in the same direction, this assumes there are no commissions, not exactly reality.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

are you serious? Papertrade wins/losses have nothing in common with real money trades ImO & ImE.
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Yeah, I agree with you 100% here JSSPMK, but to each his/her own.

Good trading to all,

Jimmy Jam
 
Quote from brotherben:

....take a win when you can, taking a loss is not a choice....
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Only the gist of these statements, if understood, is valid. As prescribed, these statements profess an inappropriate doctrine for the experienced and newbie alike.

"take a win when you can"... Taking a win is the expectancy at the point in time an opening or add trade is executed. Expectancy is not a crap shoot, ie. take it when you can. A trader who is "surprised" when his/her methods and techniques produce expected outcome is nothing more then a "hope-based" trader.

"taking a loss is not a choice"... Since a trade is entered into based on expectancy, taking a loss (or neutrality at best) is not a choice UNTIL expectancy at that point in time changes to loss (or neutrality). Regardless of technique, method, or style, change is ALWAYS an option for the market, therefore the trader, therefore the traders existing positions. When presented with the option of taking a loss(or neutrality), the trader who relies solely on expectancy is nothing more than a "hope-based" trader.

Disbelief of expectancy, whether through surprise, reliance, or reluctance, regardless of method, technique or trade style is hope-based trading. Expectancy is dynamic and imperfect across all techniques, methods and trade styles, yet scalable across all techniques, methods and trade styles. Taking a loss is not a choice, it is inevitable.

Strong coffee this morning.
Osorico :)
 
Quote from brotherben:

.take a win when you can, taking a loss is not a choice....
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Losses are inevitable: they can either be large or small; and most large losses begin as small ones.

Profits too are inevitable: they can either be large or small, and most large ones begin as small ones.

But if you take profits "when you can" you will rarely get large profits; if you make the "choice" not to take a loss, you will often get large losses.
 
Brotherben's method is based on having high percentage winners and taking profits 'early', I wouldn't be surprised if his average win equals his average loss, which is not best practise ImO, ulnless Holy Grail's been found :)

Great little post SS, direct.
 
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