ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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these conditions are extremely unique, when you think the market has just about done everything it still surprises you. A lot of the negativity has been factored into the price, true negativity can only come from a premium point in price.

a simple way to put it is, the market is pushing on a string on the sell side. When participants realize this, you will have that rally.

I expect to test 1560 by the end of the year, for premium build up.
 
Quote from vertigo3:

I submit this quote from smilingsynic on page 3138 of ESJ:

"The good news is that there are ways to determine(trend-day), an hour or so in, what kind of day it is probably going to end up being. For example, if the 9:30 open is a gap from the previous afternoon's close, look out if the gap is not filled. Gap (or strong move) plus mid-day consolidation equals late afternoon continuation. JMHO."

I find this especially true if a test of S3 pivot does not produce an immediate and "never look back (or retrace but once) lift in prices.

Prices can slosh sideways into the afternoon then drop persistently once bulls (those buyers during the sideways consolidation) throw in the towel.

S3 today is 1456.25
S2 is 1463.00
S1 is 1471.25

obviously, if the Fed comes in and makes a surprise move, non-technical influences will have changed.
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Of course the Fed may make a surprise move. What would count as one at this point, I don't know, since this morning's job's report was so bad that a rate cut would no longer serve as a surprise.

I agree with your observations of S3. If the liftoff from this morning's low is pathetic, then watch out for this afternoon. Odds are, the bottom will drop, and will continue to drop until quarter after four, as traders get positioned for the weekend.
 
I think the markets can easily (intraday today) embrace the notion (spin the weak NFP) into slam-dunk for a rate cut.

The psychological tug of war is "but have things gotten too bad to be saved by one rate cut?"

I think it would take 4 or 5 minutes of prices printing above 1472.00 (roughly midpoint of gap down) to increase odds for a filling of the gap today.

But, personally, I don't think the Fed will do anything today, and unless that 1472.00 is breached for 4 or 5 minutes, afternoon weakness seems most likely with the data in hand now.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

On another note, if the Fed wants the most bang for the buck on a rate cut, wouldn't it wait until NEXT week, during triple witching?
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You can bet that all those put holders have that in their mind from last time.
 
Quote from vertigo3:

I think the markets can easily (intraday today) embrace the notion (spin the weak NFP) into slam-dunk for a rate cut.

The psychological tug of war is "but have things gotten too bad to be saved by one rate cut?"

I think it would take 4 or 5 minutes of prices printing above 1472.00 (roughly midpoint of gap down) to increase odds for a filling of the gap today.

But, personally, I don't think the Fed will do anything today, and unless that 1472.00 is breached for 4 or 5 minutes, afternoon weakness seems most likely with the data in hand now.
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to be an effective bear, can only be done after the rate cut. Risk is too high to be a positional bear, intraday bear, the risks are still high.
 
ES Daily chart has a rising wedge off of Aug lows to current price which normally means a resolution to the downside to continue to downward move that started mid July.

Assuming we get a strong close below 1455 today and into next week the extent of the breakout should be as long as the move into the wedge.

1565-ish high to 1414-ish closing low is about 150 points.

Wedge high was 4 days ago at about 1485 on average so a breakout and extended move lower will take us to 1335 or so. The measured moves are never exact so lets say 1350. Looking at some OTM option plays for OCT or short ES for long move below 1455 on a close.
 
Don't usually countertrend trade too much, but going to dip my toe in here small size at 1460 (buy), bouncing off the lows of the day. Jag

Edit: Don't really see anything in the mkt internals...mostly going with gut and I also see resistanance zone starting at 1458 (futures)
 
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