ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Got ya guys! No more hoping. Let me re-phrase: there is a strong probability of a retraction. :D :D imho


However the bulls are very resilient today.
 
Quote from mbusch:

Hey Sax, keep hope out of it! Trade what you see. "I hope" is a big red flag.
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On that note the underlying action continues to be very bullish ... I might have to concede you this one.

(Indicies are mixed, Bankers are strong, while the TRIN shows selling, the VXO is registering complacency).

JJ
 
To elaborate on what just happened:

When I saw the rally starting to run out of gas as it approached the close-the-gap level, I set a double sell stop order two ticks below the 200-bar SMA on my 240-tick chart. The rally had been holding above this 200-SMA consistently all day yesterday and today. When we dropped two ticks below the SMA, my stop order triggered and I went from long to short.

We're now still below the 200 SMA, and the 20SMA has now crossed under it, which officially puts me in bearish mode.

It looks to me as if we failed to close the gap by two ticks, so a retest wouldn't surprise me a bit.

EDIT: Closed the short at b/e. Looks like we are going to do a retest. Then we'll see which direction to play this.

EDIT: Yipes. Retest failed! This is not good news for the bulls, is it?
 
Quote from saxon22:

I see JJ. Always nice to her fom you.
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Ah man, it's not like that. :D

I trade shorter-term time frames and they're mildly bullish, the internals that I read are all bullish (except for that TRIN) and the TICK is telling me that the buyers are giving it their best shot ... I ain't tak'in pot shots at ya here Sax.

FWIW, this thing will probably come crashing down on everyone's head ... now see, I'm witcha! :)

JJ
 
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