ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Spectre2007:

the market has trained people to think there is no upside above 1480's, so its going to add considerable fuel, when the those stops pop.
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So are you bullish on the market right now Spec?
 
Quote from mbusch:

...Also note that the AH action has retraced the rise from the double bottom almost exactly 50%, so I'm looking to get long here. The exact 50% retracement point would be 1456.00 and so far we've missed that by 2 ticks.
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I'm long (minimum size) from 1456.50 in AH. Calculated profit target is 1478.00, which if realized would be +21.5 gain. I cannot be confident about this target until (1) I see the MAs cross on my 240-tick chart, and then (2) ES breaks above the swing high at 1467.75. But for now it's my working assumption.

Factors supporting this entry include beautiful RSI grails on both the 240-tick and 15-min charts, and MACD histogram divergence on both charts. Overall bullish bias come from the inverse H&S and uptrends on the 60-min and daily charts. (Weekly trend is indeterminate, and monthly scares the hell out of me, as noted earlier.)
 
in premarket... big volume is selling....
.... could just be manipulation to squeeze out longs......
anybody know ?
:)
15 min buy signal was at 55.5
edit... 830am volume explosion
edit... need a volume filter.... hmmm.
 
Quote from elovemer:

in premarket... big volume is selling....
.... could just be manipulation to squeeze out longs......
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Omigosh! Ya think???? :D :D :D :D

Where's Elliott Spitzer when you need him? :)
 
Quote from mbusch:

I'm long (minimum size) from 1456.50 in AH. Calculated profit target is 1478.00, which if realized would be +21.5 gain. I cannot be confident about this target until (1) I see the MAs cross on my 240-tick chart, and then (2) ES breaks above the swing high at 1467.75. But for now it's my working assumption.
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Stopped out for a small loss. Clearly doing this in AH was not a good idea. Waiting for the open to see what unfolds. So far, this latest down-move has only enhanced the RSI and MACD divergences (the MACD is now becoming a triple), and makes the retracement 61.8% instead of 50%.

EDIT: 3 min before RTH open, just touched the exact 61.8% price (1453.25).
 
Hey Mbusch, thanks for sharing your charts with us, and even more importantly, your trade analysis and thinking process as you go - very helpful and educational.

Same goes for the rest of you that post your analysis, one and all! :cool:
 
I'm long again small siz from 1453.25 with a very close (5-tick) stop. Whether this stop survives will be a good test of the power of confluence. :)

We need to get above 1460.50 to establish a micro-uptrend, and then above 1467.75 to establish a resumption of yesterday's uptrend.

Not yet confident this will happen, hence the close stop.

EDIT: One major milestone: my MAs just crossed (bullish) on my 240-tick chart. (I'm using the 20 and 100 bar SMAs for this.)
 
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