ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from smilingsynic:

Saxon, this may cheer you up.

Did you know that when the S&P closes within 10% of the day's low, the next day, the market will tend to retrace a significant amount of the day's previous decline?

Over the last four years, there were 122 instances in which the market closed within 10% of the day's low. On the next day, the market traced a mean average of slightly over 59% of the previous day's decline (the median average was less, slightly under 53%).

Note that there were some days in which the close was significantly higher than the next day's high. Yes, another gap down. There were also days in which the day's decline was totally retraced (and more) the next day.

I tested this using SPY since I do not trade ES overnight. Note the difference between SPY, an etf, and the ES futures.

And, yes, past results do not predict the future. I hope you extricate yourself from this mess as painlessly as possible. Good luck.
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As always, your message is soothing to my ears. In days like this one learns who has a soul and who is the devil on ET. I appreciate your kind words and concern. I just went over my trading for TUE and was able to pinpoint my mistakes. One was greed. I was in a position to make 1K at 2 PM instead miscalculated, got greedy and was hit hard by the effects of the minutes. Lesson learned and paid for.


It is almost midnight and I still cannot calm down. :( Time tohave that last cig. make it two.

I guess it is a good thing that I do not drink.

Once again, thank you for the positive message.
 
Quote from optioncoach:

more red coming as key support points broken and another leg down. be careful out there if you are long or trying to get long.
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I guess in your opinion we are heading lower WED?
 
forget times...intraday traders that means day begins at 9 then forget times.........your 10:30 and all......most turns occur on hour an d1/2 hr...forget times...trading day begins at 9......that is 5 yr goodie........
 
oi Saxxon,

its always best to move on to the next trade, when a trade lingers it cripples you, and further R:R can't be attempted since your tied up in the current trade.

its the hardest thing to give up, hopes and dreams, set a predefined amount from now, and if it hits it, it will prevent further bleeding.

ES can move up or down, but your current psychology is what is worth saving, not the trade.


Chris
 
Quote from saxon22:

I appreciate your kind words and concern. I just went over my trading for TUE and was able to pinpoint my mistakes. One was greed. I was in a position to make 1K at 2 PM instead miscalculated, got greedy and was hit hard by the effects of the minutes. Lesson learned and paid for.
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I pinpoint my mistakes every day. I keep a journal, and I analyze every trade. It is the best way I know to get better. There is always room for improvement.

Lessons in this business usually do not come cheap, but they can grow into great long term investments. Look at losses--and it is a loss, not just a "paper" loss- as tuition. Everyone who trades--and not just talks like they trade but don't--pays it.

There are no scholarship players in THIS game!
 
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