ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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vol, i still like your attitude...sleep well for tomorrow it will go up down and sideways all 3 present opportunities......the answer lies in risk management.......anyone can see which direction price is currently going........it can only run and chop...2 things possible run and chop.......if you have a true edge and can trade it u have money ...there is no big secret to trading emini's intraday....the problem is always in the stops.......risk management........when the day is done.......be the robot....
 
volente....here are some trading rules:

1.......don't think when trading/think when creating system
2.......don't watch cnbc
3.......don't curve fit/change system during trade
4.......find the safe stops/most have never heard of this
5.......forget times/see signal/stops always protect ur money
6.......don't trade yesterday's market
7.......don't talk to other's about your trading/forum grins is okay
8.......buy low sell high
9.......don't anticipate/see #1
10.....see your signal and enter trade immediately set stop.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Who says you can't predict the market? :)




Pekelo (Aug 28, 2007 10:42:57 AM)
by the way we are proceeding according to SDD timeline

Pekelo (Aug 28, 2007 10:46:42 AM)
so anyway, here is how a SDD proceeds:

Pekelo (Aug 28, 2007 10:47:00 AM)
Dow is down in the first 90 mins by 100-120

Pekelo (Aug 28, 2007 10:47:14 AM)
then bounces back and channels for the next 3 hours

Pekelo (Aug 28, 2007 10:47:22 AM)
then usually more down after 2 pm
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I never heard of SDD, but that is right. Indeed, it is one of my core principles (I 've discussed it here before, some months ago)

It is also true on the upside: market is up strongly by 11, and just sits there, chopping around in a narrow range. When that happens, get ready for surge #2. Buy programs kick in, and the market closes on its high.

I first read about that tendency from Gary Smith, an S&P daytrader who publshed a couple of manuals about 15 years ago. Although much of what he wrote is not particularly relevant today, his stuff is worth reading, if only for that .
 
Quote from saxon22:

Then I am willing to smoke a pound of it .... for the market sake of course. Anything for the ES to go up nad up and up.
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Saxon, this may cheer you up.

Did you know that when the S&P closes within 10% of the day's low, the next day, the market will tend to retrace a significant amount of the day's previous decline?

Over the last four years, there were 122 instances in which the market closed within 10% of the day's low. On the next day, the market traced a mean average of slightly over 59% of the previous day's decline (the median average was less, slightly under 53%).

Note that there were some days in which the close was significantly higher than the next day's high. Yes, another gap down. There were also days in which the day's decline was totally retraced (and more) the next day.

I tested this using SPY since I do not trade ES overnight. Note the difference between SPY, an etf, and the ES futures.

And, yes, past results do not predict the future. I hope you extricate yourself from this mess as painlessly as possible. Good luck.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

I never heard of SDD,

It is also true on the upside:
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It is just a name I came up with, it is easier to refer to a certain day/movement by name.

The opposite of SDD I call ADU, All Day Upper. It proceeds like this:

Dow is up 70-90 and tops around 10 am
Pullbacks into 11 am (best time to get long if missed the beginning) 20-30 pts drop
Intraday top between 12-12:30
Drops into 1-2 pm
Rallies into 3:30-3:45

The 2 days are mirroring each other and both have a 3 hours sideways movement that still can be played by Bollinger Bands.

P.S.: Aug 22nd was a classic ADU, I predicted the timeline in the chatroom well in advance....
 
Oh, and one more thing regarding these days that close withing 10% of the day's low. There is usually a chance to buy lower the next day, but there is around 60% more upside potential than downside the next day; for the next day's high ON AVERAGE is 0.67% higher than the day's close, and the next day's low ON AVERAGE is only 0.42% lower than the day's close.
 
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