Is Monday the next day after Friday ?
What happened wed, thurs, and monday ?
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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Is Monday the next day after Friday ?
What happened wed, thurs, and monday ?
Quote from tommymoose:
How do you go about calculating your premium? I try to select a few different minutes of the day where their is low activity and comparing the highs and seeing what the average was. I actually see I'm getting 3.5 now that I took more samples which is closer to what you're using.
Now the question of do we get down low enough... I dont know, but in order to trade this way I need to maintain relatively small stops. About all I can do is cross my fingers that it turns within my 2.5 point range. Over the long-term I'd rather miss my entry by a point a couple times than be wrong and take a bigger loss often.
I'm leaning towards yes, it will get low enough. We're coming off of a lot of momentum. I'm really aiming to get filled in the first half-hour of trading and then have the 9:45-10AM reversal crew come and bid it up... If we try to make a rally attempt before my level is hit I will phone my broker and cancel my order since my guess is the bulls will only get one shot.
I just take random samples and subtract them, problem is the futures will often overshoot cash on extreme moves so you have to be careful.
Noted. Compare 8/03 to 8/04 though... thats what I'm looking for. Closed on the low on 8/03, then fell another 5.45 points on 8/04 before reversing hard. Todays low minus 5.45 puts the SPX at 1526.55... premium adjusted = 1430 on the ES. Not saying this will happen, just trying to look to history for predictions.
Big players are on vacation right now, come Tuesday the action will pick up.
Yes, but today is Tuesday night, not friday night. You can not use a scenario where there is a 2 day break between trading and say it is the same as m-t. I am not saying it is not possible, but the probability is not high for reversing after closing at the days lows.
Initially, there will be a band of delusional optimists lining up behind 1430 to prop up the price, but once they're all shot dead the market will quickly head lower to the 1410 area. Eventually ES will retest the low registered on 08/16. Don't be naive in thinking that this market is heading back up anytime soon.
Saxon, I have no doubt you're an astute trader with many years of experience. But it appears that you can still use some help when it comes to technical analysis. I suggest that you check this nightly Youtube market analysis to bring you back on track. Unlike other "educational" TA garbage floating around the web, this guy is a straight shooter who's definitely worth checking out.
http://www.youtube.com/user/inthemoneystocks
Quote from tommymoose:
How do you go about calculating your premium? I try to select a few different minutes of the day where their is low activity and comparing the highs and seeing what the average was. I actually see I'm getting 3.5 now that I took more samples which is closer to what you're using.
Now the question of do we get down low enough... I dont know, but in order to trade this way I need to maintain relatively small stops. About all I can do is cross my fingers that it turns within my 2.5 point range. Over the long-term I'd rather miss my entry by a point a couple times than be wrong and take a bigger loss often.
I'm leaning towards yes, it will get low enough. We're coming off of a lot of momentum. I'm really aiming to get filled in the first half-hour of trading and then have the 9:45-10AM reversal crew come and bid it up
http://www.indexarb.com/
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