ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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trending situations in most macro markets. Heres ES, not much of a attempt.
when you can recognize when the probability of a inefficiency will be higher, it will give you an edge.
when you can recognize when the probability of a inefficiency will be higher, it will give you an edge.
Very rarely I will place orders with certain parameters in the morning before class/internship. After I place these orders I am unable to see a real-time chart for the rest of the day. Tomorrow may be one of those days, depending on action tonight. What I have in mind -
Long Order @ 1431, Stop @ 1428.50, Target @ 1451
We have the low of 1427.36 SPX on 8/06 acting as the left inverted shoulder. Just shortly under at 1425.00 is the a 50% retracement level from 8/16 low to 8/24 high. I figure between 3.5-3.75 point premium from SPX to ES.
Long Order @ 1431, Stop @ 1428.50, Target @ 1451
We have the low of 1427.36 SPX on 8/06 acting as the left inverted shoulder. Just shortly under at 1425.00 is the a 50% retracement level from 8/16 low to 8/24 high. I figure between 3.5-3.75 point premium from SPX to ES.
I've been using ~ 3.3 for premium but the rest of you trade seems solid. The only question is
Do we actually get down to 1425 cash ~ 1428.3 ES or do we blast off from slightly higher ?
I doubt ES is going down all the way to 1431 tonight. I think overnight traders will bid it up seeing an opportunity to load up at these levels. Many still remember late Feb. and what happened afterwards. Anyway, after a steep sell off like today, there should be a bounce up. Will it be a dead cat bounce or something more significant I do not know.
Through my years of trading I have learned that when a market closes at a low or high for the day, the move more than likely will carry through at least into the first hour of the next day of trading. Maybe today is an exception but the rising volume and falling price indicate it is a low probability long at this level.
How do you go about calculating your premium? I try to select a few different minutes of the day where their is low activity and comparing the highs and seeing what the average was. I actually see I'm getting 3.5 now that I took more samples which is closer to what you're using.
Now the question of do we get down low enough... I dont know, but in order to trade this way I need to maintain relatively small stops. About all I can do is cross my fingers that it turns within my 2.5 point range. Over the long-term I'd rather miss my entry by a point a couple times than be wrong and take a bigger loss often.
I'm leaning towards yes, it will get low enough. We're coming off of a lot of momentum. I'm really aiming to get filled in the first half-hour of trading and then have the 9:45-10AM reversal crew come and bid it up
... If we try to make a rally attempt before my level is hit I will phone my broker and cancel my order since my guess is the bulls will only get one shot.- Status