ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Talk about "fed anticipation syndrome": 30-year T-bond futures just hit 111 for the first time, from 109 just a couple of days ago. This is major volatility for the usually-staid treasuries. (I don't play the bond futures, but I do own calls on the Lehman 20-year T-bond ETF.)
I very much share Spooz's concern that if the fed disappoints at the FOMC meeting, bonds and stocks will both crash and burn. Consequently, I'll probably unwind my bond calls before the meeting, because I think the risk of disappointment is high.
I don't envy the FOMC members at the moment; they're kind of in a damned-if-you-do (stagflation), damned-if-you-don't (market plunge) position right now. If I were a feddie, I'd probably fear stagflation more than a market plunge, because the fed is pretty powerless to get us out of stagflation, while on the other hand they can buoy the markets with a flick of the finger.
Spec, you've probably explained this before and it probably went in one of my ears and out the other...
Is there some intrinsic economic connection between ES and USDJPY, or is just the arbitrage-bots that connect them? Do you use UDSJPY as a leading indicator for ES? It would seem that if they just move in lock-step due to arbitrage, then it should have no predictive value.
For those of you who follow the ES 240-tick chart, the 100-bar MA has been acting as support for quite awhile. Presently at 1475, and we just tested and bounced off it to the upside once again. Price action still looks bullish (albeit slowish). Still long. My calcs show a short-term PT of 1480.00 and an intermediate-term PT of 1484.25.
there you go just a second ago, you saw it move in tandem, almost as if yen was being converted to dollars and used to buy index futures.
I think computer pattern recognition shifts through multiple markets, and whenever strong links build up between two derivatives, the scalping systems shift bias, 'directional scalping'.
it could be as simple as asian inflows into us equities.
1475 is also currently 20 EMA on 5 minute chart and a pivot mid-point between Pivot/R1.
If it breaks, here comes 1469..
did ya see that.. again..
those who don't have fx feed.. you can get it free with java charts.. www.fxcm.com
Quote from BigBubba:
thx spec.. nice charts there
yen is breaking out as you say.
spent countless sleepless nights trading yen.
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