ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from wave:

Yes volente there is money in the noise trading . Lots of it. But if one learns to keep his stops out of the noise he can run a poistion from 1370 to 1470 and only give back 6-10 points at the top when he is stopped out and at that point he or she may already be short as well.

it doesn't pay to make a few points here and there, quality of life can only change if your banking 50+ points on moves.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

it doesn't pay to make a few points here and there, quality of life can only change if your banking 50+ points on moves.

exactly, we are talking lifestyle changes.
 
Quote from mbusch:

Be careful! Apex went to Mexico, and no nobody's seen him for a week!

oi, a hurricaine just passed through there, closer to belize, yucatan, Xcalak...

I love that climate.
 
Quote from volente_00:

The problem is in the math. If pt1 has shown to be reached 70% of the time, but pt2 has only been shown to be reached 25% of the time, then one must put the money in the bank and not allow greed to let a winner turn into a loser. This game is about consistently making money hitting singles and doubles, not trying to hit a homerun on every trade.

Most likely then it should all be removed at PT1 unless PT2 is well above PT1 and the it might be possible that PT2 is the better target. This is what I mean by having PT2 calculated correctly.

There really should be no PT2 by the way. There should either be one target and one target only, or the trade should just be allowed to run with a trailing stop outside the noise. A stop of a few ticks is a stop that is begging to be taken out. Trades should be all in and all out. If I use a signal to get long, I will use that same signal in reverse to exit. Otherwise the trade usually still makes sense on the long side.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Longer term trend is still up. In fact, a bit renewed here. Longs are what should be looked for. Will I miss good short opportunities? Probably, but I want my best probabilities to play out. I will be only looking at longs for the time being. (Intraday traders of course, may define longer term in a much different manner and that is fine)




You posted this right near the top before we pulled back nearly 180 points. How are you going to tell me you can set far out point targets when you are wrong on the direction ? My point is no one knows what the market will do on a longer time frame. It is easier to predict shorter moves because there are to many unknown variables for the longer term.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

it doesn't pay to make a few points here and there, quality of life can only change if your banking 50+ points on moves.

FTR, this is neither true nor is it correct.

Good trading,

JJ
 
Quote from volente_00:

All I have to say is there a boat load of money to be made in the noise. 6 to 10 points stops ? I would rather make 3 to 5 trades with 2 point stops that all have a probability of becoming big winners versus blowing my wad on 1 trade with a stop that big. The market constantly presents opportunities to pick money out of it. With the vol we have had lately not even a 10 point stop is safe.

Entries that are chosen with very strict criteria and patience will rarely get stopped out at 10 points if 10 is outside the noise, but are easily stopped at 2 points. I am interested in trades that net a lot of money with minimal commissions and require less work at trying to get back in after a stop out. A daytrader who makes 1 or 2 trades a day total or even no trades 3 days of the week will most likely be the winning trader. This is why you can't say "done for the day" at 2:45 PM. Signals can present themselves any time of day. I believe in blowing off the after hours trading however and just trading RTH. This will allow daytrader to have a life. Exit all positions before the end of trading and go on to other things in life. If you don't exit, the you are a swing trader and need to have position size correct when you enter a trade. Do not even think about the markets and then come back 30 minute before the open and start looking for signals. Daytraders do not need any fundamental information. There is nothing that needs to be reviewed or watched each evening. Just take the good signals during RTH and get some sleep every night or get the garage painted. Watch Ramsay's shows and Big Brother and enjoy life.
 
Quote from volente_00:

You posted this right near the top before we pulled back nearly 180 points. How are you going to tell me you can set far out point targets when you are wrong on the direction ? My point is no one knows what the market will do on a longer time frame. It is easier to predict shorter moves because there are to many unknown variables for the longer term.

At that time, that is how the chart looked. However you will see that I exited not long after and have been out of longs on apositional basis since the mid 1500's.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

target 63 then bounce back to 68, fail at 68 then 63 then 53.


see how someone pressed the break, but that 'presser' needs to revitalize his cap, meaning he needs increase cash reserves, once you press and you don't have others pressing with you, and you try to increase cap back, price rebounds and more slippage is there..

edit: you want to see slippage in your direction. It tests the inherent strength of the market, if its fragile, the slippage will be in your favor, and if its strong, then slippage will be against you as you try to revitalize cash reserves.
 

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