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ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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-Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Hourly trend continues to be downward. The 5 minute provided a bounce late in the day with a Bullish divergence. I only take divergences in the direction of the current trend. Therefore I did not trade the 5 minute bullish divergence that would have netted about 7 points. I prefer to identify the trend as I see it and then trade only that direction. This has me missing trades, but it also has me in larger winners, so one can feel more comfortable in their position size. Example: Hourly trend was long at 2 PM EST last Thurs. Then long grails appeared on the shorter term charts overnight, most specifically in the 45 minutes before the Fed announced the rate cut Fri morning. Thus, long was the order of the day and there was a large benefit.---
Good trading to all.
Are you sure you mean't to say hourly trend continues to be downward. I am looking at an hourly chart and sure appears to me upward. If you see the hourly chart in a downward mode could you please define that?
DMartin
Historically over the years what I've seen is that equities are elastic, meaning in times of fear, they will be pummeled, but as soon as the fear abates, the equities spring back.
A few friends ended up buying the fear, while everyone was dumping the past few weeks. And now they are sitting on some sizeable gains. And this pattern of trying to control sentiment in terms of fear and greed seems to be an art that has been perfected over the years. The goal ultimately is to have the naive, sell at the bottom and buy at the top, this transfers immense wealth from the masses to some well placed people. Is it wrong to sell when fear is present no, but it is wrong to sell once fear plasters the media, by then its too late. Noone will know in advance when prices will stop falling. But measures of fear ecclipse, and I haven't seen it this bad even in the late 90's credit crunch. But looking at the present situation, some healing steps have been taken by the powers that be, the immense liquidity injections are unrivaled. And now there is some political pressure on the FED to cut rates.
This dance has been played over and over historically in equities. And still it works to part people of their wealth. Unless new fear comes back into the market, the market will be bought up to entice the naive to step back in. Its a well controlled machine. The only thing that breaks it are forced redemptions of large sums of shares.
At the present moment I don't see any visible effects that the economy has taken a debilitating hit. This time window will be used to ramp prices back up till visible signs, the economy is slowing. Even better as the market moves up, more people will doubt and question the price action and attempt to short it and this provides further fuel for further gains to the upside.
I will become bearish and pessimistic when wealth transfer/flows start slowing to the far east. That will be a direct measure, that the global system is succumbing to the friction of the credit crunch.
very interesting thank you.
I only trade options. However, i've come to define the market in 3 terms, steep down, steep up and "normal", and usually in that order. We could very well be in the steep up phase where selling a call 1 sigma away has severe negative expectancy. None the less, i'm surprised there has not been a solid down day and still think there could be a retest with a mild pop of the vix.
I only trade options. However, i've come to define the market in 3 terms, steep down, steep up and "normal", and usually in that order. We could very well be in the steep up phase where selling a call 1 sigma away has severe negative expectancy. None the less, i'm surprised there has not been a solid down day and still think there could be a retest with a mild pop of the vix.
The charts always show what the price is doing. Intraday guys should not think, only go with price direction. Trend is simpler than simple. Higher highs, higher lows, etc. Market only runs and chops. Ask Mr. Marcus to explain. Maybe he will return.
vix....
michael marcus?
..sorry wrong quote attached.
mostly true, but to use the word 'all', I wouldn't go so far. If you treat your business like gambling, yeah.
sometimes I will be sadomasochistic, and let the position run up against me, so I can rebuild that feeling of distaste within me. If you loose sight of that, then in the future a much larger mistake can cripple you.
you always have to keep track of whether your making headway, a sizeable hit can set you back weeks if not months. Trading is a slippery slope, you might have some decent wins, and your W:L can be quite high, but all it takes is one hit. I truely advocate a 'grey box' system of risk management.
Where you set the system to shutdown after a predefined loss for the day. Otherwise you wont make any headway.
Its all you in the end, you yourself will committ hari kari. The market isn't doing it, your doing it to yourself.
Its all you.
Chris
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