ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from optioncoach:

VIX has been way higher than this before, fear levels were high as of late but overall VIX is still pretty low historically.
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my subjective sense relative to the participation of american retail investors, it seems vix would be on par with past extreme levels, even though the absolute number is lower then those extreme numbers in the past.

levels of speculation by the average retail investor, seems very low from a subjective sense by me.
 
Quote from volente_00:

2 gaps are under us now, but i suspect we make a run to 1480 before the selling picks up.
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And here we are with 3 gaps


:eek:

looking to get short ~1485.5

Come on bulls
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

my subjective sense relative to the participation of american retail investors, it seems vix would be on par with past extreme levels, even though the absolute number is lower then those extreme numbers in the past.

levels of speculation by the average retail investor, seems very low from a subjective sense by me.
More...

If you look at the actions wouldn't you say that the retail trader is actually not fearful enough? They seem to brush off all bad news quickly and just buy buy buy...
 
Quote from optioncoach:

If you look at the actions wouldn't you say that the retail trader is actually not fearful enough? They seem to brush off all bad news quickly and just buy buy buy...
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I don't think retail trader is participating as much, its mostly institutions and naive money or prepubescent hedge fund managers throwing their clients money away.
 
1472 I believe was the tic high after discount rate cut, it should test that level and look to move higher.

this seems like the last party on the Titanic before it hit the iceberg.

lot of the macro funds who registered 100% gains or 35% gains shorting subprime, will be looking at these levels in futures, at some point they will step in.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

1472 I believe was the tic high after discount rate cut, it should test that level and look to move higher.

this seems like the last party on the Titanic before it hit the iceberg.

lot of the macro funds who registered 100% gains or 35% gains shorting subprime, will be looking at these levels in futures, at some point they will step in.
More...

71.50 tic hi......& 20d to the tic as well.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

1472 I believe was the tic high after discount rate cut, it should test that level and look to move higher.

this seems like the last party on the Titanic before it hit the iceberg.

lot of the macro funds who registered 100% gains or 35% gains shorting subprime, will be looking at these levels in futures, at some point they will step in.
More...




They are making a run at the 50 day which was previous support.
 
imagine the psychology of those hedge fund managers who were shorting subprime while most of the market was ignoring it.

I'm sure a drawdown of sorts was probably evident before it blew up. I saw Melchers interview, and a lot of them feal things for the american consumer will get progressively worse as time passes.
 
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