ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Spectre2007]

Quote from kinggyppo:

what is your outlook on USDJPY for the next six months to a year?

115-110 range. Slowing economic growth implies conservative measure and risk aversion out of Japan.

Carry trade unwind should still continue.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from Spectre2007:

115-110 range. Slowing economic growth implies conservative measure and risk aversion out of Japan.

Carry trade unwind should still continue.

fair enough, thanks.

 

[mbusch]

Quote from mbusch:

Last trade of the day...

S 1453.50
BS 1455.00 (6 ticks)

Closed at 1450.25 for +3.25.

Tomorrow, all. Good trading!

(Gosh, I miss those 40- and 70-point moves. What do they think it is...August?)

 

[Spectre2007]

the close was extremely positive, even though point wise, it didnt amount to much. Price action is indicating accumulation underneath.

when the 2:00 oclock time window passed without any move, would have expected a stronger downdraft to below 1450 to 1440 or lower, and it didn't materialize. When selling is expected and it doesn't materialize, its a good sign.

Towards the close, price was very resistant to move down. It seemed easier for the price to move up then down.

 

[mbusch]

Here's one for B1S2:

Is it possible that the monthly chart portends a crash of 2000-esque proportions? Look at the monthly RSI, and compare with 2000.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from Spectre2007:

the close was extremely positive, even though point wise, it didn't amount to much. Price action is indicating accumulation underneath.

when the 2:00 oclock time window passed without any move, would have expected a stronger downdraft to below 1450 to 1440 or lower, and it didn't materialize. When selling is expected and it doesn't materialize, its a good sign.

Towards the close, price was very resistant to move down. It seemed easier for the price to move up then down.

Here is some food for thought, here is 240 minute chart of DAX, it's OK since it's more of a world market nowadays, but there is a reason why I have chosen DAX and not ES.

Out of 13 times, beginning early June 07, histogram crossed over the centerline, 12 have resulted in downside, 1 failed and it hasn't really crossed the centerline, I just thought it would be fair to list it as a failure as some traders do trade early signals.

Histogram is at the centerline right now.

I still see daily as potentially bullish on the other hand

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1576412>

 

[Spectre2007]

checkout what the market is doing based on past patterns. It implies when the FED does cut, we test the 50 day MA(green) line.

 

[Spectre2007]

Quote from Spectre2007:

statements were made. usdjpy looks like its gunning for the 114.00 even stops during asian session, should bring ES down with it.

114.00 busted.

 

[elovemer]

....i like your idea of a 6 tick stop as i think that mentally, it would force you to get the best (early) entry possible.... or force you to act as soon as you get the signal....something i am struggling with now

Quote from mbusch:
Long from 1447.75 w/6-point stop.
Stop raised to breakeven.

 

[tommymoose]

If 1560 resistance holds up and this assending triangle (not sure of exact technical term) breaks, I show us heading back down... target of 1408-1412. If it breaks out above 1460 though I expect a pretty fast paced runup to 1479.