ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Sponger]

Quote from Spectre2007:

there is nothing that can stop this, except a external event as I posted before the open.

a massive earthquake or war can only deflect the mental focus of traders and funds on the market.

the fed is behind the curve, on this. There is massive destruction of wealth that the equity markets relatively low levels of decline is hiding.

Like Spectre2007 said, I would add"TRANSFER" of wealth occurs. Would love to hear some thoughts on what sectors/products/etc are getting too hammered below fair value. We have a serious opportunity at the end of all this to swoop in and go long various markets etc. Thoughts anyone???

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from Spectre2007:

1406-1386, theres your 20 points.

Quite good, except when you posted at 10:47 the ES was at 1396, so one needed a 11 pts SL to stay in the trade...

Timing is everything...

 

[vertigo3]

we just had capitulation style volume in the 15 minute charts, bar ending 12:15, 244,000 contracts.
I think the sellers have sold.

 

[Sponger]

Quote from Spectre2007:

keep your newswires open... the minute the FED cuts rates, everyone will cover shorts at the same time.

I'm not saying its going to happen today. But watch for it.

Nice of you to point that out to everyone - seriously - those surprise rate cuts/hikes have destroyed the financial lives of many a trader.

 

[Sponger]

Quote from Sponger:

Like Spectre2007 said, I would add"TRANSFER" of wealth occurs. Would love to hear some thoughts on what sectors/products/etc are getting too hammered below fair value. We have a serious opportunity at the end of all this to swoop in and go long various markets etc. Thoughts anyone???

BUMP

 

[Spectre2007]

I wouldn't rush in to buy, the market has to demonstrate support, it will take time to gain the confidence of the market participants back.

So Sponger you will have more then enough time. And its not price your attempting to trade, you should be looking to trade price action.

Price action dictates profitability of the trade, rather then the price, the current climate, time is the enemy of the bulls. The more time passes, the further the declines, so if your looking at arbitrary price points to determine fair value, it can lead to financial ruin. Similar to the dot.com explosion, many rushed in when prices were cut in half, then price were cut in half again. So trading price action is more critical.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from Sponger:

Like Spectre2007 said, I would add"TRANSFER" of wealth occurs. Would love to hear some thoughts on what sectors/products/etc are getting too hammered below fair value. We have a serious opportunity at the end of all this to swoop in and go long various markets etc. Thoughts anyone???

dia or spy, dia will probably lead the charge up. I am talking a couple year hold here. This could go underwater, how good is your scuba gear? weekly dia with 50 ema.

 

[Sponger]

Quote from Spectre2007:

I wouldn't rush in to buy, the market has to demonstrate support, it will take time to gain the confidence of the market participants back.

So Sponger you will have more then enough time. And its not price your attempting to trade, you should be looking to trade price action.

Price action dictates profitability of the trade, rather then the price, the current climate, time is the enemy of the bulls. The more time passes, the further the declines, so if your looking at arbitrary price points to determine fair value, it can lead to financial ruin. Similar to the dot.com explosion, many rushed in when prices were cut in half, then price were cut in half again. So trading price action is more critical.

Totall agree about price action, and I am not by any means suggesting NOW

When the dust settles, there's going to be a window of opportunity to seize the day. Real estate wise, the first thing that comes to mind is Apartment REITS. On the personal side, I am investigating the foreclosure market of both single and multifamily residences in my area.

 

[Spectre2007]

this type of price action is very rare, learn the tic action and general climate, of what everyone is going through. It will help immesnely in the future.


1366..................come on baby.

1406-1386-1366......see the pattern.

 

[Sponger]

Quote from Spectre2007:

this type of price action is very rare, learn the tic action and general climate, of what everyone is going through. It will help immesnely in the future.


1366..................come on baby.

I've seen my share of turmoil over the years, and its never exactly the same. But man, the bear market action is dead on - brief rallies followed by fast, violent downmoves. Today's one of those violent downmoves :eek:

Those old market truisms exist for a reason, one that comes to mind - the markets climb up the staircase on the way up, and jump out the window on the way down.

Congratulations to any and all who are holding short positions right now - gotta be grinning ear to ear