ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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volente you've been telling me for a week 1480 by friday. you keep moving your thrust price down. all i knwo is i got the steak house picked out when you come to town and IT WON'T BE CHEAP
 
Anyone hear of measured moves before?

1566.25 (all-time high) MINUS 1432.75 (prevous support) =133.5

1510.5 (swing high) MINUS 133.5 = 1377

14097 (YM all-time high) MINUS 13111 (previous support) = 986

13740 (swing high) MINUS 986 = 12754
Just under a 10% drop.


I will not be able to daytrade for the next two weeks or so, so I will not be able to watch price action, but if the price touches those levels, I will be buying for an intermediate-term trade (5-15 days out). Not that anyone cares, nor should they.

I hate missing these wonderful waves of price action, but it is out of my control. I envy the rest of you.

I generally do not like trying to catch falling knives, as I hate drawdowns, but the VIX is over 30, historically a pretty decent level to consider countertrend buying--slowly, and patiently, since the VIX could easily go to 35 or 40. I have powder that I have been waiting to use.

I may be wrong, and I often am, but I have been around for many previous bear raids, and I am starting to smell a rally...
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Anyone hear of measured moves before?
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Does anyone ever use closing prices for this?

Close of High bar = 1560
Close of Low bar after drop = 1455

1560-1455 = 105

Close of swing high = 1505

1505 - 105 = 1400 ... which is right around where trendline, fib, and february high support will be for Dow aswell.
 
Short from 1414.25 in AH.
Closed at 1404.25 for (rule of) +10

Exit was a little premature, as bottom turned out to be 1400.25. Looks like tommymoose had it nailed in his calculations an hour and a half before it happened...nice job!
 
mbush nice Fn trade man... I was watching that but didnt want to short just before the 15 min close... I wanted that entry but decided to pass. 1400 as you know was my next major support level. Taking a look at the dow, nq and es/spx charts... This is it. As volente says, major rally is high, high odds. Its just a matter of when they want to hit these credit spread sellers who have been making money the past 5 years... one more decline into expiration and these guys will be wiped out. However, I just trade the zones I leave my brainstorming for just that.... not my trading plan. We should see minimum 1416 off this 1400 low overnight and even 1422.

I just took my firt AH entry in awhile

long from 1401.25 stop at 1399.50

targets 1415 and 1420

third target will be trailed for a massive move.
 

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Quote from apex82:

I just took my firt AH entry in awhile

long from 1401.25 stop at 1399.50

targets 1415 and 1420

third target will be trailed for a massive move.
More...
Amazing! I went long from 1400.75 with a 1-point stop. Last paint 1405. I haven't decided whether I'm expecting a normal little retracement here (scalp trade) or a full-blown re-test of 1422 resistance. I'm gonna keep watching until I'm ready to hit the sack, and then tighten my stop so I can't get hurt too badly if the market turns south while I'm in the arms of Morpheus. :)

Lately there have been some remarkable moves in AH. It's not just your grandpa's Globex anymore. But it does move a lot closer to the speed that my little pea-brain works. :D I have to be honest that things changed too rapidly in Wednesday RTH for me to catch the flick, and so while I ended in the green, I gave up a disgusting amount of unrealized profits. "Trade what you see, not what you think" is a lot harder than it looks sometimes.
 
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