ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Again today, the bias was long until late in the day. Longs worked all day and even at the end if a proper stop was used, then the day would have been very profitable. Right now , there is still a bullish tone to the 240 and the 60 has a bearish tone. The daily still has quite a bear look and the weekly is very bearish as well. This is why when trading with the long bias when it appears on the 60 , you must keep a very close leash on the trades. Tomorrow will likely have a bearish look to it although the overnight trade is capable of negating that . Based upon the daily and weekly, I am not prepared to get long yet positionally, however when the 60 is showing bull, that's when I will be long for short periods of time. (not right at this moment ):)
 
Quote from volente_00:

1452 ES is where it is at


those selling right now are doing it with a 6 point premium from the cash close. Seems brave to me to be shorting here. My analysis shows a move up to ~1482-1485 on ES sometime this week.
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You mean it's trading at parity to cash and a 600 basis discount to fairval on futures.
 
With the puny close that occurred today, I just cannot now condone longs as it stands right now. That may change, but for me bias is now short for intraday. No positions on right now intraday or otherwise, so let's see how the overnight plays out. We didn't really take out the low from the daily chart yet, so certainly there will be folks who are shooting for that target still. I may be the last to get long--we'll see. --Looking short for now--:)
 
I have to agree if they can hold this zone overnight and into tomorrows RTH an explosion to the upside will occur... However, If this zone does not hold look for a violent move to the downside to 1425-1430. I am looking for a move to continue to the downside due to my gut and having traded these long term trend changes a lot... A way to know that the market is holding would be a 15min reversal bar in tomorrows RTH after testing this zone or a bit higher. I would change my bias heavily to the long side if this happens.
 

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ES headed back to 1495-1511--market has held support for the past 8-10 days as Bearish sentiment increased dramatically in major newspapers. Would love to see a retest around 1433.

DMartin
 
According to the August 10 data, commercials are less bullish on the S&P than they were on the 3rd (which was at a 52-week high). Went from over 22K of the big contract to under 10K.
 
damartin i think you're mistaken as i've seen zero bearishness towards stock prices. sure there's big negativity toward credit issues but i can hardly recall more than a few people out of 100's on cnbc even mention we can fall 10%. MATTER OF FACT 80% OF WHAT I READ ONLINE AND SEE ON TV FROM CNBC OR FOX IS BUY BUY BUY. look at cnbc today they had bull after bull on. i think thats why the market has stalled the last 2 days as everyone thinks it will sky.i'm starting to believe the increase in short positions the last year are related to hedging techiniques by hedge funds.
 
joeyata1: Well, I have been wrong before. What I was referrring to were headlines from the Chicago Tribune, New York Times, L.A. Times and Barrons. Time will tell.

DMartin
 
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