ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[una11]

Bears still trying to press, just as hard as they can, lol.

 

[Spectre2007]

with this type of action, the market kills the bull stops and runs up during night session, then everyone ends up paying a premium, to get back in.

 

[Chuck Krug]

long here
avg in 1455.25 with trailing stops

 

[apex82]

Another bearish close.... remaining short.

1448.50-1450.50 is basically the bulls last chance... wouldnt be surprised to see it tested tonight and broken for a move down to 1425-1430 by tomorrow or wednesday.

 

[vanv0029]

Quote from atticus:

Covered the Dec 1225P at 16.50 average [current offer], futures at 63.00. +255 handles, $12,750 pre-comms.

Aren't you taking a big risk. I don't trade options
and I don't have access to modeling software,
but what if ES fell 70 points (about 5%).
Wouldn't you be stuck with VIX up to around 32
and a 150 point loss? What would you have done?

 

[mbusch]

Quote from apex82:

Another bearish close.... remaining short.

Me too. I went short at the right shoulder at 1465.25 and am holding my short into AH, where we just went below the RTH LOD.

 

[atticus]

Quote from vanv0029:

Aren't you taking a big risk. I don't trade options
and I don't have access to modeling software,
but what if ES fell 70 points (about 5%).
Wouldn't you be stuck with VIX up to around 32
and a 150 point loss? What would you have done?

70 handle loss at 35% vol on the 1225P = ($22,500)
70 handle gain on futures = $17,500

Projected loss: ($5,000)
Actual gain: $12,750

Win of 2.5x a projected 70-handle hit for a 3 day hold.

 

[una11]

Quote from apex82:

Another bearish close.... remaining short.

1448.50-1450.50 is basically the bulls last chance... wouldnt be surprised to see it tested tonight and broken for a move down to 1425-1430 by tomorrow or wednesday.

Odd lotters are heavily short as well...hmmm....

 

[Spectre2007]

Quote from una11:

Odd lotters are heavily short as well...hmmm....

my risk dynamics, which aren't measurable except media screening, and general feel indicate that for a large position trade to be long.

sentiment in this market turns on a dime, if you look at what we just went through in the markets, its very similar to shock waves of the past.

and if you look at what has happened from similar shockwaves, the market went up first and asked questions later. Meaning the projected economic slowdown, the market will rally first, and look for evidence of the slowing. Its the easiest thing for the MMs to do. Now that abberant orderflow is less, the MM's have a better handle on things.

 

[volente_00]

1452 ES is where it is at


those selling right now are doing it with a 6 point premium from the cash close. Seems brave to me to be shorting here. My analysis shows a move up to ~1482-1485 on ES sometime this week.