ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from saxon22:

I have disclosed some of it here on ET and I am not here to say that what I do is superior to others or better. Simply put, so far this is how I make my $$$$. Yes the system is testable. In a way it is somewhat similar to what you guys do here except that I cast my net wider and take more risk.
What I am saying is that I get hit for about $15.000 once amonth, the rest of the days I take in a sizeable amount of $$$ (for me that is).

I do no know better and I am not all that. I am a humble fellow, and maybe so far I have been lucky. Time will tell.

Good weekend to you! :D :D :D

I trade countertrend, too, so I cannot say that I disagree entirely with your approach. The super-high leverage would concern me, because it takes only a small losing streak (statistically a guarantee) to wipe out a number of hard-earned profits.

Plus one should also take into account Murphy's Law: there HAVE been times when Globex is down, and one cannot get out of the ES (hedge with YM, in that case, but many don't know that); computers break in the middle of trading days; brokerages sometimes are not up and running.

My point? Expect the unexpected. I tend to be careful, because I have seen many others who weren't, not be around.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

What IS your system, exactly? Is it testable? If not, it is not a system.

Long term, 21 days is not nearly enough, statistically.

From the tone of your responses now and in the past, you are confident you know better. Good luck to you.

LOL, Saxon22 is a New Yorker.

Outside of some conversation and jousting back-and-forth, he ain't really try'in to tell you noth'in ... but he's given enough information (with his months of posting) so that you or anyone else with the time, some good charts and the ability to run automated trading simulations could pretty much figure-out what he does and how, and then you could just run your computer simulations to see what the risk of blowing-out was.

Good trading,

JJ

P.S. BTW, off the top of my head, I'd say that on any give trade, he probably has a 80% chance of ultiamtely succeeding ... so his statement of blowing-out once a month sounds good (he's improved his odds slightly, but cannot totally exorcise risk with this method).

And the fact that he admits it, shows that he's being pretty upfront with us here.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

with all this intervention if the market closes on the lows, it will signify a lack of confidence in FED measures today.

I dont know the exact similarities but wasn't this a similar situation after september 11 with everyone doubting the Fed intervention. The market rallied for 4 months after that before really kneeling over.
 
Quote from BoyBrutus:

I dont know the exact similarities but wasn't this a similar situation after september 11 with everyone doubting the Fed intervention. The market rallied for 4 months after that before really kneeling over.

yeah.......precisely the risk for those leaning on the price. With a FED friendly, October might shape up to be a nice.
 
Quote from saxon22:

I am glad that $$$$$ is also going to your coffers. Enjoy the weekend and spend the money wisely. Ciao!!!! :D :D

LOL, :) - the money doesn't get spent, it accrues.

JJ
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

LOL, Saxon22 is a New Yorker.

I KNEW IT! (not that there's anything wrong with that)

I'm from Philly, originally. When I go back, it's like going into an entirely different world.
 
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