ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Spectre2007]

after lunch the high should be challenged one more time, if it fails it confirms the probability shift.

the highs shouldn't be violated at 1468, for the probability of a downward move to increase as the close approaches.

 

[apex82]

Gotta be long here... They got it above resistance and are now holding support just like in the picture I posted last night

 

[Prevail]

Quote from atticus:

I'd mentioned on another forum that 24.98 may be the top in the VIX on this move. I went short vol this morning.

synthetic straddle? strangle?

 

[atticus]

Quote from Prevail:

synthetic straddle? strangle?

1400/1500 ES Sep strangle from 53.00. Skew-neutral at ~1467.

 

[Prevail]

Quote from atticus:

1400/1500 ES Sep strangle from 53.00

'been a long time since we've seen these vix levels. I was thinking the long term trend of the vix/vxo is now up. risk is being re-priced globally.

 

[Jaxon]

Quote from apex82:

Gotta be long here... They got it above resistance and are now holding support just like in the picture I posted last night

Thanks, I understand that - clearly stated

Quote from wave:

I can't help it. I want to see some coin in your pockets. Longs under 1435. Likely end of down run today.

There's also quite a bit of discount in some high growth stocks. Value buyers love these corrections!

That is also a clear statement that I can comprehend.

But the next 2 I can't figure out what is being said:

Quote from wave:
I hear something.


Do you hear the sound? Cmon clean out the wax. Listen, hear it?

 

[Spectre2007]

looking for the true bottom next week. This is only the second week for the reaction low. The third week has a higher probability for fishing out the bottom.

Heres a RSI and ATR, signaling very oversold conditions, but a bottom in RSI doesn't mean the actual price bottom is in. I anticipate that next week.

 

[mbusch]

Quote from apex82:

Gotta be long here... They got it above resistance and are now holding support just like in the picture I posted last night

You're probably right. I show us right in the zone now, but a break above it warrants going long.

Whoops, there she goes...

L 1457.25
SS 1454.75 (2.5 points, just below bottom of zone)
PT HOD

 

[Sponger]

Quote from Spectre2007:

I'm giving away these concepts... but take a look at this pic o the MA and when they crossed on the daily bars. I wont be concerned till they cross, if they do cross I will become long term bearish.

the crossover signaled the start of the major bull run.

Long term trend following using a MA crossover system is definitely a time proven concept.....what makes it so hard to stick with is those huge retracements that take back massive chunks of your gains, and leave you second-guessing "has the tide turned?" Simple in theory, but not easy in reality.

 

[atticus]

Quote from Prevail:

'been a long time since we've seen these vix levels. I was thinking the long term trend of the vix/vxo is now up. risk is being re-priced globally.

No liquidity, but the YM Aug 13300 straddle is 500 here. Great opportunity for a small lot player.