ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Spectre2007]

the option traders who trade volatility day in day out, will become a goldmine for info.

I think Atticus, does well, so bugg him for info on how volatility is looking, and for turns in it.

 

[Spectre2007]

Quote from Sponger:

Continue please.......at what point does this have an effect on the weekly or monthly chart trend?

well the monthly bar that just printed was a outside bar, meaning it extended the range to the upside and downside. And this usually happens during trend shifts.

It really implies further downside, but whether that downside comes now or next year.. is the question. A crash in october has a high likely hood of happening as price challenges the 50 day MA and get rebuffed.

If a impending recession is at hand, then profit outlook will be less, and prices adjust to this outlook.

I anticipate a test of 1360 next year.

Oil is hitting the consumer...or the majority of the populace. Oil doesnt matter to the high end consumer. Higher oil prices act as a tax on the consumer.

This liquidity rout makes it harder for consumers to finance their debt.

In a bear market low PE's are the norm...so low PE's are worriesome.

 

[wave]

I hear something.

 

[mbusch]

Stopped out of my shorts at 1458.25
+9 points on initial position.
Break-even on add-on.


May look to re-enter short.

 

[kinggyppo]

Newer people may want to reduce contract size. This is called rule one from "Phantom of the Pits". Start with small size and add to the position if proven correct, with increased volatility your stops may get hit quick especially with the way markets are bouncing around. Good luck and honor your stops.

 

[dmartin]

Wave:

"I hear something"--what are you talking about? Are you hearing voices?

DMartin

 

[Sponger]

Quote from Spectre2007:

well the monthly bar that just printed was a outside bar, meaning it extended the range to the upside and downside. And this usually happens during trend shifts.

It really implies further downside, but whether that downside comes now or next year.. is the question. A crash in october has a high likely hood of happening as price challenges the 50 day MA and get rebuffed.

If a impending recession is at hand, then profit outlook will be less, and prices adjust to this outlook.

I anticipate a test of 1360 next year.

Oil is hitting the consumer...or the majority of the populace. Oil doesnt matter to the high end consumer. Higher oil prices act as a tax on the consumer.

This liquidity rout makes it harder for consumers to finance their debt.

In a bear market low PE's are the norm...so low PE's are worriesome.

Thanks for the feedback - I wanted to understand your thought process and how you were linking the 60M chart to the weekly and monthly timeframes. I like your ongoing 60M chart analysis and input of price action on that timeframe.

Hey Spooz Top, let's hear from you!

 

[kinggyppo]

Better to lose small on these types of days than get blown out, remember you want to stay in the game as this is the funnest game to play.

 

[wave]

Quote from kinggyppo:

Newer people may want to reduce contract size. This is called rule one from "Phantom of the Pits". Start with small size and add to the position if proven correct, with increased volatility your stops may get hit quick especially with the way markets are bouncing around. Good luck and honor your stops.

Phantom was a great read. Thanks king. peace.

 

[Spectre2007]

I'm giving away these concepts... but take a look at this pic o the MA and when they crossed on the daily bars. I wont be concerned till they cross, if they do cross I will become long term bearish.

the crossover signaled the start of the major bull run.