ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Spectre2007]

well once the price starts working around the 200 day MA, you can look at other indicators to show you where the outliers are for the bottom. The present outlier is around 1410 on cash. We broke the classic 100 point down move, next thing to look for are 50 point increments, meaning if the lows get taken out, the market will break and establish a low at the next 50 point mark.

1560-1460 = 100 points

-50 = 1410

some other studies are pointing it as a possible bottom, if the next 50 point breaks look for a 200 point high to low bottom. or 1360. And 1360 is where the channel trendline is for the whole bull move.

Usually bottoms are found in the fall, winter period.

 

[Spectre2007]

1430 on futures today.

 

[vertigo3]

thank you, Spectre.

A friend of mine (also a futures trader) told me about 2 different technical studies he had read recently (one of them might have been in the wsj (the Hindenburg?) ) that pegged average declines from the top (for whatever the techinical conditions being studied were) of 9.2% decline and (I think) 9.4% (these were the average declines).

fun with numbers.

100% - 9.2% = 90.8%

100% - 9.4% = 90.6%

recent H 1566.25 * .908 = 1422.25

recent H 1566.25 * .906 = 1419.00

pure 10% correction = 1409.75

Fibbo downside projections from 6/27 low to 7/16 high

-1.618% = 1446.50

Loss of the range of 6/27 low (1492.00) to 7/16 high (1566.25)
would be 1418.25

 

[Spectre2007]

what month did 1929 unravel in?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I will add short one contract at 1484.25 another at 1480.75 and another at 1478.75--all on sell stops.

All 4 positions including the first short at 1487.25 were closed yesterday at the close at 1461.00, No position on right now 87 points profit yesterday.

 

[Spectre2007]

1474 -76 is the 1st resistance.

 

[Sponger]

I thought the talking head said the S&P500 was down -3.3%, took a look and saw -203.00 and said WTF?????

Hit rewind on CNBC and saw that it was Australia's market the talking head was referring to.

Anybody out there actively trading Globex last night to catch the action in the world stock indices?

 

[wave]

I can't help it. I want to see some coin in your pockets. Longs under 1435. Likely end of down run today.

There's also quite a bit of discount in some high growth stocks. Value buyers love these corrections!

 

[tomahawk]

Quote from Sponger:

I thought the talking head said the S&P500 was down -3.3%, took a look and saw -203.00 and said WTF?????

Hit rewind on CNBC and saw that it was Australia's market the talking head was referring to.

Anybody out there actively trading Globex last night to catch the action in the world stock indices?

Caught a little move 42.50-54.50 ... nice waking up today.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from apex82:

I would look at a minimum of 100 instances before putting any weight on something or I think its just gambling....

As I have been saying for quite awhile now.... this has a high probability of being the "big one" 20%+ Your views and trading plan should not change.... I am not saying that longs should not be taken just always keep your risk management in check and dont sway from your game plan at times like these.

Taking off for mexico tomorrow.... Looks like its going to be a crazy day... The last longs being taken out in a stretcher and finally switching to bear mode...A perfect setup for a short term bottom. If the market can get back above that 1458-1460 area you know they mean business. If it cant get back above it will be good ol Role Reversal..... the shoe could really drop straight down to 1425-1430.

Still short from 1540-1550( 2 pt stop max on each entry, scalp entry into a position trade) waiting for my 1425-1430 target to begin taking some more off.

Nice to see ya back mbusch.... I could use a lift down to mexico.....

After posting this I looked back over daily ES charts dating back to 1997. I noticed that these kind of day often appear in weak periods, and often represented an intermediate bottom.

Larry Williams did a study of outside down days (not the exact thing, but close, to what happened yesterday) and found that the close on average represented a short term bottom.

This would make sense, if one sees the market in which suckers get in at the top (when the smart money is in the process of "distribution") and then get out at the bottom (when the smart money buys what they sold to the suckers back), ) IOW, the weak handed and then demoralizec bulls get knocked out of their positions, which then leads to a bottom.

The way I see it, we ought to be ready for anything today and the rest of the week. Anything. It makes little sense to get wedded to a position in this market.