ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Might start posting a daily wrap up

GEN: On The Fly: U.S. Market On Close Wrap-up for Thursday, July 26th - The major indices closed substantially lower Thursday, as rising corporate interest rates, subprime lending concerns, and angst in the housing sector drove the Dow down almost 360 points, in a broad-based sell-off... The Dow closed down -359.21 to 13,425.86, the Nasdaq closed down -74.75 to 2,573.42 and the S&P 500 closed down 045.17 to 1,472.92. The Russell 2000 closed down -28.97 to 783.53. Hanesbrands (HBI, +3.59) closed up +13.49%. Goodyear Tire (GT, -4.28) closed down -13.35. CURRENCY: U.S. dollar strength closed down -1.60% against the Yen and down -0.15% against the Euro. COMMODITIES: Light Crude Oil closed down -0.93 to 74.95. Natural Gas closed up +0.018 to 5.943. Gold closed down -11.400 to 675.100. ECONOMIC DATA due out Friday: Consumer Sentiment. EARNINGS: Notable companies reporting Friday include: Chevron (CVX).

Source: Fly on the wall



Hey Romik, hows the salt mines ? :D
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

What is your macro view, specifically (if time allows)?
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The rally was largely due to privatization, which cannot be sustained under the evaporation of credit. The sub-prime mess is horrific, but it pales by comparison to the underwriting momentum we've seen in the past two years, which is now gone. Swaps blowing out. Corporates rising 300 basis in a quarter. We've yet to hear what exposure the top five banks have in short CDS.

Retail sales numbers will be horrific next month. Don't be long into the number.
 
Quote from apex82:

NEW ALL TIME HIGHS...... get ready guys... been talking about this since back in february. We are getting close to capturing one of the biggest moves to the downside in the past 5 years.

Be patient....
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I saw this coming for months..... Just amazing to catch it and really rake it in when the oppurtunity presents itself... I am still in shock.

Anyways, after a big move I use to post some daily sr levels.. The one I posted after the last feb was the exact low to the point before moving to new all time highs. They are strong levels and important areas for daytrading.

Here are the ones for the ES:

Minor support - 1464 give or take a few

Main support and main target for my shorts posted last week before the decline- 1425-1429

Here is the visual...
 

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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

some global red, I wouldn't worry too much, this is all just a warm up exercise into 3rd and 4th quarter volatility expansion.

If you look at what the market did, it blew out stops 20 points above and 20 points below the implied trading range. I would have to bet, that simmons algo's accounted for a great degree of volume yesterday.

these same algos are used in the world currency markets, they can pretty much take the market where ever they want to. Don't let the range expansion take you out of the market from being on the wrong side.

the range has been 100 points in ES from highs to lows. At 1556 was a awesome short setup and a few people were able to short it there, and there was no clear signal to cover the short till it blew out stops at 1492, which the market just did. When it blew out stops it blew them out in a major fashion. But notice by the end of the day where the market settled, it would have been extremely negative if we closed on the lows.

the world markets interlinked with the economy, turn on a oil supertanker principle. Its pretty easy to see the turn, and you could tell bond yields would drift down on a cyclical basis. Liquidity retraction is evident on a global basis, and liquidity was what drove the market higher. Take a look at the daily chart pattern leading up to 2000, the last 4 years. The range expansion or day to day volatility increase is pretty clear.
 

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Quote from atticus:

The rally was largely due to privatization, which cannot be sustained under the evaporation of credit. The sub-prime mess is horrific, but it pales by comparison to the underwriting momentum we've seen in the past two years, which is now gone. Swaps blowing out. Corporates rising 300 basis in a quarter. We've yet to hear what exposure the top five banks have in short CDS.

Retail sales numbers will be horrific next month. Don't be long into the number.
More...

Thanks.
 
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