ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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<i>No Mas</i>

Got stopped out for -5pts ES in one of those afternoon lifts that were crushed. Then again, all of them were.

Bought into each squeeze, scaled up 2x normal size on three occasions (as described in the weekend post here) and picked up few linear points on each. All three buys came back hard against generous trailed stops... gave up a lot in unrealized gains on every trade.

Missed every afternoon drop past 2:55pm est, they all blew away while I was managing long trades and dove before I could flip. Trading a 500tick chart was not nearly fast enough for the drops.

Sellers just kept crushing longs with waves of overhead supply. Haven't seen this in five years, since 2002. Just another dip before new market highs? Check the volume today... pretty heavy on the distribution.

Tally was +42pts ES linear per contract. That includes scaled-in positions doubled up as price moved in favor of positions, not against. Would have been nice to catch a few more shorts, too.

*

If the travel distance of each intraday swing were totaled, it must have been a 300+pt ES range. We've seen entire two-week periods with less overall price movement than this single day. Sometimes, too much of a good thing is indeed too much.

Unreal, hard to believe, but seen it before. Each time preceeded when markets came unglued and plunged to unfathomable depths. Should be an interesting time ahead, summer be darned.
 
Quote from austinp:


Tally was +42pts ES linear per contract. That includes scaled-in positions doubled up as price moved in favor of positions, not against. Would have been nice to catch a few more shorts, too.


Thank you for that austinp:

I read this and understood it right way. I use a similar calc, but I never placed the word "linear" with it. Definately clarifying. FWIW my "linear" pts per YM contract today was 242 NET. Did not trade ES.

Thanks again,
Osorico :)
 
Quote from atticus:

Macro-wise, I see all of 2008 in recession. I moved my wife's 401k into cash last month. There is no rising tide. IMO

What is your macro view, specifically (if time allows)?
 
<i>"Thank you for that austinp:
I read this and understood it right way. I use a similar calc, but I never placed the word "linear" with it. Definately clarifying. FWIW my "linear" pts per YM contract today was 242 NET. Did not trade ES."</i>

I use that term to describe = measure how far each contract traveled. For example, I was long 1483 full-size and again 1486 full size. That is 2x normal size, blended entry 1484.50 = initial stop 1483.50 or higher. 2x leveragein the pyramid, normal initial risk (plus unrealized gains).

That trade trailed out at 1492.50 for +8pts ES on 2x contract size, or +16pts linear = true $$ value. Make sense?

That's the power of pyramiding during special circumstances when directional action is probable. Each lift today seemed destined to rocket, but they all got blasted by selling.

After I quit trading, there've been three more 10-pt rolls in the ES. A normal day's range flies by in ten minutes or less. Hard for some to handle, cut my teeth in this stuff years ago. Last year when VIX levels were nearing zero, we predicted this year would be active. It is.
 
Quote from wareco:

Hmmm, I must have missed you posting those paper trade calls.


I do not paper trade and no you did not miss my live calls. I have decided that there is no need to post them any longer. Doubters will never believe and I am not here to illustrate who has got the longest .....
 
Quote from austinp:

<i>"Thank you for that austinp:
I read this and understood it right way. I use a similar calc, but I never placed the word "linear" with it. Definately clarifying. FWIW my "linear" pts per YM contract today was 242 NET. Did not trade ES."</i>

I use that term to describe = measure how far each contract traveled. For example, I was long 1483 full-size and again 1486 full size. That is 2x normal size, blended entry 1484.50 = initial stop 1483.50 or higher. 2x leveragein the pyramid, normal initial risk (plus unrealized gains).

That trade trailed out at 1492.50 for +8pts ES on 2x contract size, or +16pts linear = true $$ value. Make sense?

That's the power of pyramiding during special circumstances when directional action is probable. Each lift today seemed destined to rocket, but they all got blasted by selling.

After I quit trading, there've been three more 10-pt rolls in the ES. A normal day's range flies by in ten minutes or less. Hard for some to handle, cut my teeth in this stuff years ago. Last year when VIX levels were nearing zero, we predicted this year would be active. It is.

Sure it makes sense. I use a slightly less exact method to get there, but linear none the less. At eod...
Total NET pts on all contracts traded, per instrument, divided by AVG(rounded up) number of contracts per trade, per instrument. Of course count of trades (entry+exit=1 trade) must be known to determine AVG contracts per trade, per instrument.

I was somewhat disappointed with my performance today. Fell into the same boat. Each lift got blasted. One time while I was sidelined I watched the YM trade 50pts up and 50pts down within 15m, timed to the 7m mark for the reversal. It was just amazing. I sat on my hands in awe.

As for the Vix, I started trading futures(paper+live) part-time, mornings only, back in 2001-2. I dont give any thought to higher volatility, other than how it affects risk management, but I sure do/did grouse when it isn't there. :)

Good trading to you
Osorico
 
<i>"Doubters will never believe..."</i>

With the sideways rolls this market took today, averaging down near the lows (long) or averaging up (highs) could have caught several trades for big gains.

Timing the turns by piling in while the market surges against you takes more guts than I have, Saxon. I've been blown away by unbelievable market behavior too many times in the past to have that kind of stomach now. I find it easier to average up than down, myself.

I have no doubt what you are doing is possible... that is plainly visible in the chart. Time the turns correctly and you win nicely. Time them wrong a few times today, which was also possible, and it can be painful.

Please carry on, and do not be offended. Tune everyone out and let the market teach you what works or not.
 
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