ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from smilingsynic:

I hate down trend days like this: you go short, and then end up getting only small pieces of the move, since the market snaps back. And if you want to hold longer, you have to look out for big reversal bar rally (who knows if it is the o0-called "PPT") that will squash your short like the bug you feel you are (on days like this).

And even though those with a short bias today DO make money, most of us have IRAs and stuff. We don't short there, and those are getting beaten up on days like this (weeks like this).

Give me a smooth uptrending day any day. Soon, would be nice.

I own some SDS in my IRA... unfortunately, not nearly enough. In theory you could own only SDS in your IRA, which would make you twice as short as you would be long if your entire portfolio was in SPY. Weird, no? I was just getting ready to short the market but before I could push the button on my limit order the market was already above my stop....
 
<i>"I hate down trend days like this: you go short, and then end up getting only small pieces of the move, since the market snaps back. "</i>

You forgot to mention starting with a -16pt ES gap at the open, for good measure :>)

By 10:30am I was up +9pts ES. By 11:00am I had given -5pts back long & short on -1pt stops, then missed that whole big plunge lower after going flat.

By 12:30pm I switched to 200tick chart and scalped my way back to +2pts, +2pts, +2pts and +2.5pts all short. I walked away to eat lunch, missed the next plunge lower completely.

Returned minutes later to see price action basing near 1485. Long 1486.50 and trailed out 93.50 inside of ten minutes' time.

+19.5pts ES (linear per contract) by 1pm, having missed both big legs lower completely. Wild, wild, wild times this week... just like July 2002 was. Reliving it again.

So far this week the tally is +5pts Mon, +12pts Tue, +10pts Wed and +19.5pts (for now) today. Potential was there for three - four times that, but no one catches everything.

We'll probably see more periods of this action for months to come. Whoever keeps buying those dips is getting crushed with overhead supply. The big money players must be pinching themselves whenever the tape lifts +5pts, because they crush it back down -10 or more with volume surged.

Squeeze coming soon... this afternoon or tomorrow. Lots of time left on the clock for this one still.

(edit) now long 94.00 and letting this one air out if it sticks
 
the news has to keep up for the shorts to continue to make headway..

so if more bearish news doesn't hit the market, I don't like to short.

the trade on the bearish side on a intermediate term basis is over...

similar to the breakout players to the upside, breakout players to the downside will get reamed. This market is a consolidative range market, and significant direction on a macro perspective wont be made till most of the players are back in the fall.
 
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