monday will give people the reaction low they are looking for. 1490 stops at risk.
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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<i>"There is no one in my circle of friends who trades, so I cannot bounce ideas off of them. So I do it here, when I have time."</i>
Most mornings when free time is available, I visit three sites in this order: Miami Herald (Dolphins), ESPN and ET.
Herald only has interesting news part of the year. ESPN is hit & miss. ET is more hit than miss... too many garbage threads. This one is the cleanest, most professional and positive by far. An amazing run that has not totally degraded into a cesspool like so many others run the typical course.
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Looking at the overnight session's range from 29.50 to 16.50, it appears volatility is here to stay awhile. Gotta love months of June & July, often the best action of any calendar year.
Yesterday had so many wild swings, it was mesmerizing. I was away from the screens for much of the day by undesigned necessity. Still managed to book +10pts... but here's where I should have easily had +10 more:
Intraday news events typically tip their hand directionally some time after the release is digested. This is true for all FOMC stuff, 10am reports and the Philly Fed / Beige Book pair. Price action usually (not always) goes into a consolidation. News release causes sideways or spiky gyrations. Price action then makes a directional break, pulls back and resumes direction of the break.
Pretty straightforward stuff... typical 1,2,3 price behavior.
Yesterday I jumped the gun and bought ES 1516 right after BB news was released, trading fast charts. That stopped out at 1514 which took me from +12pts to +10pts for the day.
Meanwhile, price action posted a potential double-bottom low and broke several bars (depending on timeframe) back above prenews range. Buy signal setup alert. The actual buy signals came near 1514 (early between 1 and 2 swing points) and especially near 1516 area on the pullback. A final buy signal was confirmed near 1518 before the tape took off.
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I saw all of those signals and considered buying them. On a day where several swings had not already rolled big in both directions, would have been all over them like mud on my springer spaniels. But... protecting a 10pt take after having been stopped at par a few times and then -2pts had me in a different mindframe, one of profit protection instead of speculation.
I took the banker's offer in "Deal Or No Deal" and passed on what the other suitcases held. In this example yesterday, the offer went up at least +10pts additional had the subsequent signals been taken.
That's reality in the trenches. Trading real money is always different when we see $$$ flowing in & out of the ledger. The clear patterns were there. Sometimes the result is merely sideways chop strung out from those afternoon reports right into the close. Other times, price action makes profitable moves. Deal, or no deal. That's the question we must answer for ourselves multiple times daily
Most mornings when free time is available, I visit three sites in this order: Miami Herald (Dolphins), ESPN and ET.
Herald only has interesting news part of the year. ESPN is hit & miss. ET is more hit than miss... too many garbage threads. This one is the cleanest, most professional and positive by far. An amazing run that has not totally degraded into a cesspool like so many others run the typical course.
*
Looking at the overnight session's range from 29.50 to 16.50, it appears volatility is here to stay awhile. Gotta love months of June & July, often the best action of any calendar year.
Yesterday had so many wild swings, it was mesmerizing. I was away from the screens for much of the day by undesigned necessity. Still managed to book +10pts... but here's where I should have easily had +10 more:
Intraday news events typically tip their hand directionally some time after the release is digested. This is true for all FOMC stuff, 10am reports and the Philly Fed / Beige Book pair. Price action usually (not always) goes into a consolidation. News release causes sideways or spiky gyrations. Price action then makes a directional break, pulls back and resumes direction of the break.
Pretty straightforward stuff... typical 1,2,3 price behavior.
Yesterday I jumped the gun and bought ES 1516 right after BB news was released, trading fast charts. That stopped out at 1514 which took me from +12pts to +10pts for the day.
Meanwhile, price action posted a potential double-bottom low and broke several bars (depending on timeframe) back above prenews range. Buy signal setup alert. The actual buy signals came near 1514 (early between 1 and 2 swing points) and especially near 1516 area on the pullback. A final buy signal was confirmed near 1518 before the tape took off.
*
I saw all of those signals and considered buying them. On a day where several swings had not already rolled big in both directions, would have been all over them like mud on my springer spaniels. But... protecting a 10pt take after having been stopped at par a few times and then -2pts had me in a different mindframe, one of profit protection instead of speculation.
I took the banker's offer in "Deal Or No Deal" and passed on what the other suitcases held. In this example yesterday, the offer went up at least +10pts additional had the subsequent signals been taken.
That's reality in the trenches. Trading real money is always different when we see $$$ flowing in & out of the ledger. The clear patterns were there. Sometimes the result is merely sideways chop strung out from those afternoon reports right into the close. Other times, price action makes profitable moves. Deal, or no deal. That's the question we must answer for ourselves multiple times daily
if durable goods is surprisingly strong, I would cover shorts, and if its neutral to bearish, it will be sold relentlessly, lot of the fundies were waiting for apple earnings and durable goods to be out of the way before the true selling starts.
<i>"if durable goods is surprisingly strong, I would cover shorts, and if its neutral to bearish, it will be sold relentlessly, lot of the fundies were waiting for apple earnings and durable goods to be out of the way before the true selling starts."</i>
All that logic & pure guesswork will drive a man crazy. Much easier to just trade the charts: when we learn how to properly read them, everything need to be known is visible there.
Chart signals are the GPS system for traders. They will guide us thru the invisible cloak of seemingly random market noise.
All that logic & pure guesswork will drive a man crazy. Much easier to just trade the charts: when we learn how to properly read them, everything need to be known is visible there.
Chart signals are the GPS system for traders. They will guide us thru the invisible cloak of seemingly random market noise.
there is no reason to buy the market, until the stops at the other end of the intermediate term range get blown out. 1490.
then once a reaction low is created, its easier for players to step back in for range trade.
true decisions wont be made till end of 3rd quarter, 4th quarter, but at the current moment the implications are for a very bearish trade, not necessarily a crash, but consolidative moves with a bearish tint.
ultimately the charts dictate everything. But over the years I develop a gameplan for catalysts and events.
edit: some of the larger market makers in ES, push the price around and they do it fairly well, but when the chart starts printing a implied move, such as adhering to support and resistance levels, the risk reward favors they adjust positions based on the summation of the intraday chart.
then once a reaction low is created, its easier for players to step back in for range trade.
true decisions wont be made till end of 3rd quarter, 4th quarter, but at the current moment the implications are for a very bearish trade, not necessarily a crash, but consolidative moves with a bearish tint.
ultimately the charts dictate everything. But over the years I develop a gameplan for catalysts and events.
edit: some of the larger market makers in ES, push the price around and they do it fairly well, but when the chart starts printing a implied move, such as adhering to support and resistance levels, the risk reward favors they adjust positions based on the summation of the intraday chart.
use the usdjpy rate as a indicator, the global liquidity rout will culminate in a downward spike to 119.00 or lower, once that pair finds supports, look for other liquidity indicators to find support too.
ES is basically a liquidity indicator, the more liquidity, the higher its uppward bias is.
edit: yes vertigo.
edit: notice the unwinding a little bit of the carry trade, its overdue this year.
edit: the bonds keep making headway, the implications for the retraction in liquidity implies a slower economy.
edit: look for oil to be down more then 2 dollars intraday. oil hasn't been arbed yet. oil is still up 60 cents currently.
edit: the market wants bernie to cut rates, the more stubborn he is, the more the market will slide.
ES is basically a liquidity indicator, the more liquidity, the higher its uppward bias is.
edit: yes vertigo.
edit: notice the unwinding a little bit of the carry trade, its overdue this year.
edit: the bonds keep making headway, the implications for the retraction in liquidity implies a slower economy.
edit: look for oil to be down more then 2 dollars intraday. oil hasn't been arbed yet. oil is still up 60 cents currently.
edit: the market wants bernie to cut rates, the more stubborn he is, the more the market will slide.
Anyone been watching SPY interest ?
They indicate a range of 1500 -1550 on cash for front month.
They indicate a range of 1500 -1550 on cash for front month.
13,300 on the dow.
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