ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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What date is considered to be end of earnings season?
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If the S&P "blows thru" 1490, people will be buying stocks.
I think many here forget that although technical analysis is very useful on a short-term basis, many managers are not short-term traders but look to hold for the long term. In the long term, technical analysis has much less effectiveness, and frequently technical traders get bearish when most of the money that was to be made being short is in someone's else pocket already.
Fundamentally, stocks are not as cheap as they were a couple of years back, but they're still reasonable, when compared to the alternatives. There is plenty of cash out there just waiting for a place to be put. And in these days of still low interest rates and a punctured real estate bubble, there are few really good places to put it other than in stocks.
I lived, traded, and thrived during the 2000-2002 bear market. This is NOT 2000.
Good luck to all.
Today I had to go to the doctor with my two little boys and had some errands to complete. Plus I was a little bit under the weather the last 3 days. I should be back full time WED.
I just look at the charts and it would have been a profitable day up until about 1 pm. Anyway, I am glad I missed it.
I keep a list of numbers that have historically tended to be correlated with ES returns. All of them are bullish (which means in daytrading terms to be prepared for a good-sized rally in the next two days):
3 day and 5 day ma of TRIN well over 1.
Equity P/C ratio is highest since March and is significantly higher than 20 day ma
VIX hit 50 day high and is significantly above 10 day ma.
The low on the NYSE TICK today was the lowest in three months.
Would love to see a good GAP DOWN open,which would scare the $*%# out of all the put buyers (who would in knee-jerk fasion buy MORE), and then a rally. Statistics say, next day or two.
Is this is a prediction? No. There is real fear out there, and I would expect the VIX to hit a new 50 day high tomorrow, but I would be LOOKING for a chance to get long in the morning after a washout-- or if the market gaps up, once the gap has held--and then add more in the afternoon once it is clear the trend is intact.
3 day and 5 day ma of TRIN well over 1.
Equity P/C ratio is highest since March and is significantly higher than 20 day ma
VIX hit 50 day high and is significantly above 10 day ma.
The low on the NYSE TICK today was the lowest in three months.
Would love to see a good GAP DOWN open,which would scare the $*%# out of all the put buyers (who would in knee-jerk fasion buy MORE), and then a rally. Statistics say, next day or two.
Is this is a prediction? No. There is real fear out there, and I would expect the VIX to hit a new 50 day high tomorrow, but I would be LOOKING for a chance to get long in the morning after a washout-- or if the market gaps up, once the gap has held--and then add more in the afternoon once it is clear the trend is intact.
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