no problem with the trade, the problem was letting everyone else talk you out of it lol..
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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no problem with the trade, the problem was letting everyone else talk you out of it lol..
If you got stopped out with a 2.5 point stop that is one thing since it was a headfake for now (could still go higher).
Thats a great comment and I thought I would elaborate a bit and share some of my trades. I have put together all my trades for the past 7 months on one of my 3 setups. This will not include outliers where I carry a portion of the trade for 10-20R which would add significant profits on top of the results. This is a plain jane system that I trade day in day out. The sample size is only 7 months but I have used it for over a year and backtested it over 10 years to have a good idea what it is capable of producing. You will notice the drawdown happened during the february sell off. Volatility exploded overnight and the system had a pretty hard time with it as I am sure a lot of other systems did as well. All results include commisions as well.
I just wanted to show how a 50% winning system can produce large profits due to an edge and proper R/R ratio. Notice the avg winner is about 3x the avg loser. If you added on compounding and some of the 20r winners...... the equity curve would be off the chart. I hope this sheds some light on how tight stops and large winners can produce huge returns while keeping a trader confident and humble.
It is nice of you to post that record.
I have a couple of quick questions.
First, I notice that your system shows a maximum string of 10 losers. Did you expect to experience a run of that magnitude? What is your thought process like at about the 7th or 8th consecutive loss?
Also you show 100 as the maximum contracts held. I assume from your posts that you continue to scale in and out..Since you have a profitable system, why stay at 100 contracts? Having traded size on this contract I know what happens when you get past a certain point, but I would like to hear your comment (if you are willing of course).
Finally, the number of wining and losing bars is interesting to me. Obviously one cannot win enough to overcome expenses unless they stay in the trade as long as possible. It is interesting however that you stay in the losers for an average of eight bars. Do you keep that in mind as you watch your trade progress? Do you have any thoughts on this subject? Again just curiosity.
I appreciate any comments you might have.
Steve
I have a couple of quick questions.
First, I notice that your system shows a maximum string of 10 losers. Did you expect to experience a run of that magnitude? What is your thought process like at about the 7th or 8th consecutive loss?
Also you show 100 as the maximum contracts held. I assume from your posts that you continue to scale in and out..Since you have a profitable system, why stay at 100 contracts? Having traded size on this contract I know what happens when you get past a certain point, but I would like to hear your comment (if you are willing of course).
Finally, the number of wining and losing bars is interesting to me. Obviously one cannot win enough to overcome expenses unless they stay in the trade as long as possible. It is interesting however that you stay in the losers for an average of eight bars. Do you keep that in mind as you watch your trade progress? Do you have any thoughts on this subject? Again just curiosity.
I appreciate any comments you might have.
Steve
Calling yours a "plain-Jane system" might be carrying humility a bit far. When I first started seriously watching you trade this system a few months ago, I considered what you were doing (in the words of Arthur C. Clarke) indistinguishable from magic.
I must confess, however, that after studying your trading performance for several months, I now consider it merely half-indistinguishable from magic.
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