ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from optioncoach:

Wouldn't it be better said that you should not place a stop if you think there is a good chance it will be hit? The trade has to be good on its own, the stop is just in case you are wrong so that should placed in a position where it will only get hit if you happen to be wrong.

Thoughts?
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Stops should be placed at an area that cannot be touched by mere noise.

If this area would represent too much risk for your portfolio, then one should trade smaller.
 
Quote from optioncoach:

Saw a typo in my post. I meant to say it is better said you should not place a stop WHERE it is likely to get hit since the trade on its own merits has to be good, not just based on where a stop is placed.
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Yes, I believe that is true. If the trade is a long trade and the trade still makes sense, then why get stopped out by a little wind.
 
Quote from mbusch:

EDIT: FWIW, I have lowered my stop to 1558.50, 2 ticks below support at 1559.
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1558.50 is within the last 60 minute bar, so that's not a good stop for me. It may be a good one for you though--
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Stops should be placed at an area that cannot be touched by mere noise.

If this area would represent too much risk for your portfolio, then one should trade smaller.
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This is exactly what I am saying. You have stated it better than I. Thanks--:)
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:


One further item--If you are trading the 2 minute chart, by all means take a signal that is against your trade and get out. Most of the time, this should have you out well ahead of your stop. Just my opinion--trade as you wish
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For example: the 2 minute has exhibited strong bearish tendencies over the past 10 or so bars. A person trading the 2 minute chart is probably out of the trade on their own terms already or is short if trying to nail both sides of the market,
 
Statistically, (sample size over 1000 trends, not just the past month) the market has a higher probability of reversing before going higher at this point.... would you want to cash in profits and keep stops tigher and wait to get back in at a lower price aware that the market can continue longer and that you will possibly miss more of the move. Or.... place a large stop and possibly get stopped out at the low tick, lose all profits accumulated, and then succomb to emotions that make you want to go against your plan.

Its a toss up... put in a couple hundred hours of backtesting and find what suits your needs and personality better. There is no right or wrong way....
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

For example: the 2 minute has exhibited strong bearish tendencies over the past 10 or so bars. A person trading the 2 minute chart is probably out of the trade on their own terms already or is short if trying to nail both sides of the market,
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See, that's what makes the market.

When I look at that chart, I see a probable bull flag pattern which typically implies a continuation move to the upside, and represents a good opportunity for entry or add-on when the upside breakout from the flag occurs.

Now I could be wrong about the formation, but it does seem to me that one thing both of us have in common is a belief that this market is trending higher.

EDIT: This flag has progressed as far as I want it to go, inasumch as it's banging against support at 1559. If it breaks out upward from here, all will be right with the world. If it continues down below 1559, I want to get out of this trade and wait until the market decides which way it wants to move.

At the moment, it looks like it may be breaking out to the upside, but I won't be convinced until we get above 1560.50.
 
While we finally appear to have broken out of the flag formation to the upside (after an interminable hour), the breakout is not yet convincing and the (lunchtime) volume is very low. So I'm still nervous. But I'm still betting Spec's right and holding onto my longs. Just a lot more stressfully than two hours ago. :)

And here I was hoping for another "Bang! Zoom! To the moon, Alice!" day like yesterday. (I'm probably showing my age with that reference.)

What's that thing that Oso's always saying: "Trade what you see, not what you hope" or something like that. :)
 
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