ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from mbusch:

I lied about going to bed.

Observed possible bear flag formation starting at 05:00 EDT. Decided to wait to see if there would be a downside breakout from the flag at which I could add on to short position. Breakout appeared to occur at 06:23 EDT.

At 06:24 EDT, added to short:
S 1543.25
BS 1544.50 (1.25 points)
PT 1536.25 (7 points)
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Bear flag breakout was false. Price action terrible. Stopped out at 1545.00 for 1.5-point net loss (+.25 on initial position, -1.75 on add-on). Seemed like a good idea at the time, but I'd have been much better using the time to get some sleep. :(

A breakout above 1546 would suggest a rally to 1552 and then possibly new contract highs. (NQ already made new contract highs.)
 
ES appears to be at a critical juncture here. If ES breaks the descending trendline (presently about 1546.50, just 2 points above last paint of 1544.50), it is likely to go to new contract highs. If ES pulls back off that descending trendline, it is likely to decline to the bottom of the upward price channel (presently about 1522). If ES violates the bottom of that upward price channel, it is likely to fall to 1490ish.
 

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Quote from mbusch:

ES appears to be at a critical juncture here. If ES breaks the descending trendline (presently about 1546.50, just 2 points above last paint of 1544.50), it is likely to go to new contract highs. If ES pulls back off that descending trendline, it is likely to decline to the bottom of the upward price channel (presently about 1522). If ES violates the bottom of that upward price channel, it is likely to fall to 1490ish.
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that`s exactly what i`m watching......looking for signs of a lo risk reverse or TTT(third time thru).
 
Quote from apex82:

Reentered short tonight at 1544.25... small size.
Stop at 1546.25

Target 1536

target 2 1533

Noone jam it up to get me :)
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adding to short at 1453.30 with a sell stop.

Got lucky and missed getting completely stopped out at 1546.25 by a tick
 
Quote from apex82:

adding to short at 1453.30 with a sell stop.

Got lucky and missed getting completely stopped out at 1546.25 by a tick
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now fully short short from 1543.50 stop at 1545.25 for addon 1546.25 for initial entry. Countertrend trade... dont like the pa so far. I may just added the fuel to take it to higher highs :(
 
Quote from Spooz Top:

that`s exactly what i`m watching......looking for signs of a lo risk reverse or TTT(third time thru).
More...
For a low-risk reversal, I'd like to see a sharp up-volume spike to right around 1546 with overbought RSIs. Easy to visualize that happening here, and it would be a good sign to enter short.

If instead it just grinds higher through 1546.50, I'll probably look to enter long.
 
Quote from Spooz Top:

that`s exactly what i`m watching......looking for signs of a lo risk reverse or TTT(third time thru).
More...
For a low-risk reversal, I'd like to see a sharp up-volume spike to right around 1546 with overbought RSIs. Easy to visualize that happening here, and it would be a good sign to enter short.

If instead it just grinds higher through 1546.50, I'll probably look to enter long.

Either way, close stops are essential to protect against one of ES's famous "head fakes."
 
Quote from mbusch:

For a low-risk reversal, I'd like to see a sharp up-volume spike to right around 1546 with overbought RSIs. Easy to visualize that happening here, and it would be a good sign to enter short.

If instead it just grinds higher through 1546.50, I'll probably look to enter long.

Either way, close stops are essential to protect against one of ES's famous "head fakes."
More...

yup....i`d like to see an active lo put in with a new HOD but S&P cash tagged the top of it`s channel at about 1534.....ship may have sailed.
 
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